[I-PVC: Ilinde isikhathi] Okubalulekile: Umfula uqala phezulu, futhi idivayisi entsha (amathani angu-400,000) izobe isiseduze nokukhiqizwa okugcwele ngenyanga ezayo.Umthwalo wamafekthri angaphansi komfula wanda, kodwa ingcindezi yokugcina iketango lemboni yayinkulu.Ukuthuthukiswa kwenzuzo ye-PVC kanye nenzuzo ephelele eNyakatho China.Ngemuva kokuthi intengo iphinde yakhuphuka, isidingo esingezansi asilandelwanga.Lezi zinhlangano ezimbili zizoqhubeka nokwethulwa ngokushesha, futhi ukuthengiselana okukhulu noma akukakapheli.Ngokwamasu: 1) Linda ngokuhlangene, ubone, i-V2309 engenalutho ingalinda ukuwohloka okukhulu, kanye nentengo ye-alkalinity ukuze izinze futhi ilulame.2) I-Arbitrage 5-9 Amasethi amahle aphansi.
Umbono oyinhloko: Okubalulekile okuphakathi nendawo: ukusuka phezulu kuya phezulu, idivayisi entsha (amathani angu-400,000) izobe isiseduze nokukhiqizwa okugcwele ngenyanga ezayo.Umthwalo wamafekthri angaphansi komfula wanda, kodwa ingcindezi yokugcina iketango lemboni yayinkulu.Ukuthuthukiswa kwenzuzo ye-PVC kanye nenzuzo ephelele eNyakatho China.Ngemuva kokuthi intengo iphinde yakhuphuka, isidingo esingezansi asilandelwanga.Lezi zinhlangano ezimbili zizoqhubeka nokwethulwa ngokushesha, futhi ukuthengiselana okukhulu noma akukakapheli.Ngokwamasu: 1) Linda ngokuhlangene, ubone, i-V2309 engenalutho ingalinda ukuwohloka okukhulu, kanye nentengo ye-alkalinity ukuze izinze futhi ilulame.2) I-Arbitrage 5-9 Amasethi amahle aphansi.
Umthelela we-alkaline ku-PVC: Intengo yokukhetha okungathathi hlangothi iyehla.I-Shandong 32%i-liquid -alkali ibikwe ku-890 yuan/ton, kanti inzuzo yethani ibe ngu-656 yuan.Izintengo zaphesheya kwe-alkalinity zizinzile, nama-oda okuthunyelwa ngaphandle ancishisiwe.Amandla anqunyelwe we-Electrolytic aluminium ayengeziwe.Isidingo se-alumina se-aluminium asibuyiselwa ku-alkali egazingiwe.Naka ukulungiswa komfula.
Ukusekelwa kwempahla eluhlaza: ukungathathi hlangothi nokungenalutho 1) I-Wuhai Electric Stone ibike i-3300 yuan/ton, ukwehla kwe-100 kusukela ngesonto eledlule;2) I-Lanban kulindeleke ukuthi ibike ku-1200 yuan/ton, ukwehla okungu-100.3 kusukela ngesonto eledlule.) , I-VCM CFR Far East ikhuphuke ngo-36 US $ 764/ton.
Supply: Ukwanda kokwakhiwa kancane.Isilinganiso sokusebenza se-PVC sisonke besingu-80.09%, okuwukukhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-1.06 ukusuka enyangeni edlule;lapho izinga lokulayisha ukusebenza kwe-PVC lendlela ye-PVC lalingu-79.27%, okuwukukhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-1.94 kusukela enyangeni edlule;izinga lokulayisha ukusebenza kwe-PVC lendlela ye-ethylene lalingu-83.08%, ukwehla ngamaphesenti angu-2.14 kusukela enyangeni edlule.Umthwalo wesitoko uyakhula futhi nokulahlekelwa ukunakekelwa kwehle kancane, futhi alukho uhlelo olusha lokulungisa.
Izimfuneko: Okungenalutho okuphansi 1) Ukuqala kwemikhiqizo ephansi komfula kukhuphuke cishe ku-4.5 %.2) Ukuthekelisa: Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuyamukeleka, kuzolethwa amathani angaba ngu-197,000, qaphela isimo sokuthekelisa ngoMashi.Imikhiqizo ibe buthaka phesheya kwezilwandle.3) I-inventory ye-club yamasonto onke kanye nomtapo wolwazi wefekthri wehle kancane, kodwa iphuzu lokuguqula i-inventory alikakafiki.
Inzuzo: indlela ye-electronic engathathi hlangothi iphinde yagcwala.Itshe Logesi Elididiyelwe I-TOM-317 yuan, I-Shandong Ukuthenga Kwangaphandle Kwe-Electro-Stone Tons Lite-744 yuan;Indlela ye-ethylene yaseNyakatho yeShayina ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-1,200 yuan/ton.I-alkali ibuthakathaka, inzuzo ephelele yaseNyakatho-ntshonalanga yeChina yehle yafinyelela ku-299 yuan, futhi inzuzo ephelele yaseNyakatho yeChina ikhuphuke yaba -167 yuan/ton;umehluko wentengo wamathani amabili ukhuphuke wafinyelela ku-2900 yuan.Ukulahleka kwe-Langlong namatshe ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-PVC, ukulahleka kokuphela kwe-PVC kuye kwancipha kakhulu, inzuzo ye-alkali inqatshiwe, inzuzo ephelele yenzuzo ebanzi incishisiwe eNyakatho China, kanti inyakatho-ntshonalanga inenzuzo encane.
Okukhulu: Ukungathathi hlangothi kungaphezulu 1) Okwasekhaya: I-Yangzhou ikhansela imikhawulo yokuthenga nokuthengisa okukhawulelwe, i-Changzhou ihlela ukukhansela imikhawulo yokuthengisa.Qaphela ukuthi ngabe ukukhululeka kwemikhawulo kuyaqhubeka yini ukwanda.Izinqubomgomo ezinjengokwelula iminyaka yokubolekwa kanye ne-“Lianxin Loan” namadoda nabesifazane njengabantu abakhokha ngokubambisana ziye zaqaliswa ngokulandelana kwazo.UMnyango Wezimboni weKhomishana Yezokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko ubambe izingxoxo zokukhula okuqhubekayo kwezimboni ezifundazweni ezibalulekile.Kulindeleke ukuthi kube nezinqubomgomo eziningi ngaphambi nangemuva kwamaseshini amabili.Ukwandisa isidingo sasekhaya, ukuzethemba, kanye nokukhula okuzinzile kuyizinto okugxilwe kuzo iminyaka engama-23 yomsebenzi wezomnotho.2) I-US -non-farm ingcono, i-CPI ilindeleke kakhulu, kanti i-PMI nayo yenza ngamandla.
Amashidi ePvc angaphandle epulasitiki
Inani eliphansi lama-oda aphansi omfula i-PVC iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa izikhundla futhi yehla inyuka
Ngokwesikhathi esizayo: I-PVC (6471, 3.00, 0.05%) Inkontileka eyinhloko 2305 iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa ukuxazululwa, intengo ephansi kakhulu yi-6422 yuan / ton, intengo ephakeme kakhulu yi-6500, futhi intengo yokugcina yokuvala yi-6447 yuan / ton.Isikhundla sesikhundla sagcina sincishiswe ngo-8731 kuya ku-733136. Ngokwenkontileka eyinhloko ye-2305, izikhundla eziphezulu ezingu-20 ezinamakhanda amaningi zanda ngo-10881, kuyilapho izikhundla ezimfushane eziyinhloko ezingu-20 zokuqala zanda ngezandla ezingu-17282.Indawo yokubamba inetha yayisesesimweni esihlanzekile.
Ngokwemibandela eyisisekelo: uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka, izinga lokusebenza le-PVC likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.40 laya ku-77.54% ngenyanga ngenyanga, lapho izinga lokusebenza lendlela yamatshe kagesi liphakama ngamaphesenti angu-2.98 kuya ku-77.07%.Ukukhuphuka kancane, ezingeni eliphansi lenkathi efanayo phakathi neminyaka.Mayelana namandla amasha okukhiqiza, i-Shandong Xinfa, engamathani angu-200,000/ngonyaka, yafakwa ngokusemthethweni ekukhiqizeni ngoJanuwari, futhi amathani ayi-100,000/ngonyaka iTexas Lishi yafakwa ngokusemthethweni ekukhiqizweni ngoFebhuwari.I-Qinzhou ihlela ukufakwa ngokusemthethweni emkhiqizweni ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari.I-Taiwan Formoscus PVC ikhuphuke ngo-$40/ton ngoMashi, futhi iwindi lenzuzo yokuthekelisa lavuleka kancane.
Isidingo, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuDisemba, ukwehla okukhulayo kokutshalwa kwezimali ekuthuthukisweni kwezindlu kunwetshwe kuze kube -10.0%unyaka nonyaka, futhi indawo eqoqiwe yokuthengiswa kwezindlu isikhule yafinyelela ku- -24.3% unyaka nonyaka.Ukuncishiswa, ukuphothulwa kwenyanga kwaba -6.57%unyaka nonyaka, uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, isimo sezimali sebhizinisi lezindlu sibe ngcono, kanye nenqubomgomo yokugcina ukuthengiswa kwendawo yaba neqhaza.Ngobusuku bangomhla zingama-20 kuNhlolanja, i-CSRC yakhipha isitatimende esithi ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokudlala izinzuzo zokwabiwa kwempahla ehlukahlukene kanye nokusebenza kokutshalwa kwezimali kochwepheshe kwezimali ezizimele, futhi kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zezimali ezinengqondo zamasimu okuthengisa izindlu, muva nje, i-CSRC yethule. umsebenzi wokuhlola wezimali zokutshala izimali zezabelo ezizimele, kanye namabhizinisi ezindlu ayanda kakhulu.Imithombo yoxhaso ukuze kuzuze imboni yezindlu nezindlu.
Kusukela ngeviki langoFebhuwari 19, iholide Lomkhosi Wasentwasahlobo libuyile, futhi ukuthengiselana kwezindlu nezindlu kwaqhubeka nokusimama ngezinga eliphansi.Indawo yezindlu zentengiso emadolobheni amakhulu naphakathi nendawo inyuke ngo-10.63% ngenyanga.Njengaseminyakeni edlule, bekusesizini ephansi yoMkhosi waseNtwasahlobo futhi bekusasesimeni esiphansi.Izinga le-PVC eliqondile lokusebenza komfula nalo liyakhula kancane kancane, elingaphezulu kancane kunonyaka odlule.
Esitokisini, abakhiqizi abaphansi baqala ukuqala, futhi i-inventory yezenhlalakahle yehla kancane.Kusukela ngeviki langomhla ziyi-17 kuNhlolanja, inani le-PVC lehle ngo-0.33% ngenyanga laya kumathani angu-515,700, okuwukunyuka ngo-50.22% ngonyaka.
Izimboni zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga zaqhubeka nokuncipha, kodwa zazisesimeni esiphakeme kakhulu.Kusukela ngoFebhuwari 17, indawo esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezindawo zokugcina izimpahla zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-8.31% yaya kumathani angama-268,000.
Ngokwesisekelo: NgoFebhuwari 22, intengo evamile ye-PVC ye-Corporal Method e-East China yehle yaya ku-6350 yuan/ton.Umehluko wesisekelo usendaweni ephansi.
Ngokuvamile, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka, izinga lokusebenza le-PVC likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.40 laya ku-77.54% inyanga nenyanga, ezingeni eliphansi lenkathi efanayo yonyaka.Iwindi lenzuzo yokuthekelisa livulwa kancane, kanye nama-oda wokuthekelisa ngesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo ngemva kweholide, kodwa awekho ama-oda amaningi amasha.Ukwakhiwa kwabakhiqizi be-downstream kusephansi, futhi i-inventory yezenhlalakahle yehle kancane.Kusukela ngeviki langomhla ziyi-17 kuNhlolanja, inani le-PVC lehle ngo-0.33% ngenyanga laya kumathani angu-515,700, okuwukunyuka ngo-50.22% ngonyaka.
Izimboni zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga zaqhubeka nokuncipha, kodwa zazisesimeni esiphakeme kakhulu.Kusukela ngoFebhuwari 17, indawo esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezindawo zokugcina izimpahla zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-8.31% yaya kumathani angama-268,000.Ingcindezi yokusungula yehlile.
Indawo yokuxhasa ngezimali ibhizinisi lezindlu muhle.I-People's Bank of China kanye ne-China Banking Regulatory Commission bakhiphe isaziso futhi banquma ukusungula indlela yokulungisa eguquguqukayo yesethi yokuqala yenqubomgomo yezinga lenzalo yemalimboleko yezindlu ukuze kugqugquzelwe ukuthengiswa, ukusebenzisa ukuthuthukiswa kohlelo lohlu lwezikweletu zempahla yekhwalithi ephezulu yamabhizinisi ezindlu. , izinqubomgomo ezivamile zezindawo ezithengiswayo, kanye nokuphathwa nokulawula ubhubhane lwasekhaya kuhamba kancane.vula.Idatha yakamuva kaDisemba ye-real estate ibonisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo yokukhokha ubudlelwano bezokusebenzelana, ithuthuke kakhulu kusukela ngenyanga edlule, kodwa isakhula unyaka nonyaka.
Izinga le-PVC eliqondile lokusebenza komfula nalo liyakhula kancane kancane, kodwa ivolumu ye-oda ayilungile.Umehluko wesisekelo uphansi, kodwa ngaphambi kokuba i-PVC yehle ngokuqhubekayo, ivolumu yokwenziwayo yendawo yehliswa ngokuqhubekayo ngesonto eledlule.Amashidi ePvc angaphandle epulasitiki
Ukuze uthole imininingwane eyengeziwe, sicela uhlole isixhumanisi esilandelayo.
Inani eliphansi lama-oda aphansi omfula i-PVC iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa izikhundla futhi yehla inyuka
Ngokwesikhathi esizayo: I-PVC (6471, 3.00, 0.05%) Inkontileka eyinhloko 2305 iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa ukuxazululwa, intengo ephansi kakhulu yi-6422 yuan / ton, intengo ephakeme kakhulu yi-6500, futhi intengo yokugcina yokuvala yi-6447 yuan / ton.Isikhundla sesikhundla sagcina sincishiswe ngo-8731 kuya ku-733136. Ngokwenkontileka eyinhloko ye-2305, izikhundla eziphezulu ezingu-20 ezinamakhanda amaningi zanda ngo-10881, kuyilapho izikhundla ezimfushane eziyinhloko ezingu-20 zokuqala zanda ngezandla ezingu-17282.Indawo yokubamba inetha yayisesesimweni esihlanzekile.
Ngokwemibandela eyisisekelo: uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka, izinga lokusebenza le-PVC likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.40 laya ku-77.54% ngenyanga ngenyanga, lapho izinga lokusebenza lendlela yamatshe kagesi liphakama ngamaphesenti angu-2.98 kuya ku-77.07%.Ukukhuphuka kancane, ezingeni eliphansi lenkathi efanayo phakathi neminyaka.Mayelana namandla amasha okukhiqiza, i-Shandong Xinfa, engamathani angu-200,000/ngonyaka, yafakwa ngokusemthethweni ekukhiqizeni ngoJanuwari, futhi amathani ayi-100,000/ngonyaka iTexas Lishi yafakwa ngokusemthethweni ekukhiqizweni ngoFebhuwari.I-Qinzhou ihlela ukufakwa ngokusemthethweni emkhiqizweni ekupheleni kukaFebhuwari.I-Taiwan Formoscus PVC ikhuphuke ngo-$40/ton ngoMashi, futhi iwindi lenzuzo yokuthekelisa lavuleka kancane.
Isidingo, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuDisemba, ukwehla okukhulayo kokutshalwa kwezimali ekuthuthukisweni kwezindlu kunwetshwe kuze kube -10.0%unyaka nonyaka, futhi indawo eqoqiwe yokuthengiswa kwezindlu isikhule yafinyelela ku- -24.3% unyaka nonyaka.Ukuncishiswa, ukuphothulwa kwenyanga kwaba -6.57%unyaka nonyaka, uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, isimo sezimali sebhizinisi lezindlu sibe ngcono, kanye nenqubomgomo yokugcina ukuthengiswa kwendawo yaba neqhaza.Ngobusuku bangomhla zingama-20 kuNhlolanja, i-CSRC yakhipha isitatimende esithi ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokudlala izinzuzo zokwabiwa kwempahla ehlukahlukene kanye nokusebenza kokutshalwa kwezimali kochwepheshe kwezimali ezizimele, futhi kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo zezimali ezinengqondo zamasimu okuthengisa izindlu, muva nje, i-CSRC yethule. umsebenzi wokuhlola wezimali zokutshala izimali zezabelo ezizimele, kanye namabhizinisi ezindlu ayanda kakhulu.Imithombo yoxhaso ukuze kuzuze imboni yezindlu nezindlu.
Kusukela ngeviki langoFebhuwari 19, iholide Lomkhosi Wasentwasahlobo libuyile, futhi ukuthengiselana kwezindlu nezindlu kwaqhubeka nokusimama ngezinga eliphansi.Indawo yezindlu zentengiso emadolobheni amakhulu naphakathi nendawo inyuke ngo-10.63% ngenyanga.Njengaseminyakeni edlule, bekusesizini ephansi yoMkhosi waseNtwasahlobo futhi bekusasesimeni esiphansi.Izinga le-PVC eliqondile lokusebenza komfula nalo liyakhula kancane kancane, elingaphezulu kancane kunonyaka odlule.
Esitokisini, abakhiqizi abaphansi baqala ukuqala, futhi i-inventory yezenhlalakahle yehla kancane.Kusukela ngeviki langomhla ziyi-17 kuNhlolanja, inani le-PVC lehle ngo-0.33% ngenyanga laya kumathani angu-515,700, okuwukunyuka ngo-50.22% ngonyaka.
Izimboni zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga zaqhubeka nokuncipha, kodwa zazisesimeni esiphakeme kakhulu.Kusukela ngoFebhuwari 17, indawo esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezindawo zokugcina izimpahla zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-8.31% yaya kumathani angama-268,000.
Ngokwesisekelo: NgoFebhuwari 22, intengo evamile ye-PVC ye-Corporal Method e-East China yehle yaya ku-6350 yuan/ton.Umehluko wesisekelo usendaweni ephansi.
Ngokuvamile, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka, izinga lokusebenza le-PVC likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.40 laya ku-77.54% inyanga nenyanga, ezingeni eliphansi lenkathi efanayo yonyaka.Iwindi lenzuzo yokuthekelisa livulwa kancane, kanye nama-oda wokuthekelisa ngesikhathi soMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo ngemva kweholide, kodwa awekho ama-oda amaningi amasha.Ukwakhiwa kwabakhiqizi be-downstream kusephansi, futhi i-inventory yezenhlalakahle yehle kancane.Kusukela ngeviki langomhla ziyi-17 kuNhlolanja, inani le-PVC lehle ngo-0.33% ngenyanga laya kumathani angu-515,700, okuwukunyuka ngo-50.22% ngonyaka.
Izimboni zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga zaqhubeka nokuncipha, kodwa zazisesimeni esiphakeme kakhulu.Kusukela ngoFebhuwari 17, indawo esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezindawo zokugcina izimpahla zesifunda esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga yehle ngo-8.31% yaya kumathani angama-268,000.Ingcindezi yokusungula yehlile.
Indawo yokuxhasa ngezimali ibhizinisi lezindlu muhle.I-People's Bank of China kanye ne-China Banking Regulatory Commission bakhiphe isaziso futhi banquma ukusungula indlela yokulungisa eguquguqukayo yesethi yokuqala yenqubomgomo yezinga lenzalo yemalimboleko yezindlu ukuze kugqugquzelwe ukuthengiswa, ukusebenzisa ukuthuthukiswa kohlelo lohlu lwezikweletu zempahla yekhwalithi ephezulu yamabhizinisi ezindlu. , izinqubomgomo ezivamile zezindawo ezithengiswayo, kanye nokuphathwa nokulawula ubhubhane lwasekhaya kuhamba kancane.vula.Idatha yakamuva kaDisemba ye-real estate ibonisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo yokukhokha ubudlelwano bezokusebenzelana, ithuthuke kakhulu kusukela ngenyanga edlule, kodwa isakhula unyaka nonyaka.
Izinga le-PVC eliqondile lokusebenza komfula nalo liyakhula kancane kancane, kodwa ivolumu ye-oda ayilungile.Umehluko wesisekelo uphansi, kodwa ngaphambi kokuba i-PVC yehle ngokuqhubekayo, ivolumu yokwenziwayo yendawo yehliswa ngokuqhubekayo ngesonto eledlule.Amashidi ePvc angaphandle epulasitiki
Ukuze uthole imininingwane eyengeziwe, sicela uhlole isixhumanisi esilandelayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-24-2023