Isihloko sangempela: Ukubona kusengaphambili u-2021: “Imephu ye-Panorama Yomkhakha we-PVC wase-China ngo-2021″ (enesimo semakethe, ukuqhudelana kwezindawo namathrendi okuthuthuka, njll.) Umthombo: I-Prospective Industry Research Institute
Izinkampani ezinkulu ezisohlwini lwemboni: Xinjiang Tianye (12.060, 0.50, 4.33%) (600075);I-Zhongtai Chemical (17.240, 0.13, 0.76%) (002092);Iqembu le-Beiyuan (10.380, 0.25, 2.47%) (601568);I-Junzheng Group (6.390, 0.15, 2.40%) (601216);I-Sanyou Chemical (15.450, -0.13, -0.83%) (600409).
Idatha ewumnyombo yalesi sihloko: umthamo wemboni;umkhiqizo wemboni;isidingo semboni
Uhlolojikelele lwemboni
1. Incazelo
I-Polyvinyl chloride, efushanisiwe njenge-PVC (i-Polyvinyl chloride) ngesiNgisi, i-polymer eyakhiwe yi-polymerization ye-vinyl chloride monomer kuma-peroxides, ama-azo compounds nezinye iziqalisi;noma ngaphansi kwesenzo sokukhanya nokushisa ngokuya nge-free radical polymerization reaction mechanism.Njengamanje, izindlela ezijwayelekile zokuhlukanisa imboni yezwe lami ye-PVC zifaka ukuhlukaniswa ngokuya ngobubanzi besicelo, ukuhlukaniswa ngokwendlela ye-polymerization kanye nezigaba ngokuya kokuqukethwe kwe-plasticizer.Izigaba eziqondile zimi kanje:
2. Ukuhlaziywa kochungechunge lwezimboni: Uchungechunge lwezimboni lude futhi lubandakanya izimboni eziningi
Ngokwezindlela ezihlukene zokukhiqiza, izinto zokusetshenziswa phezulu kochungechunge lwemboni ye-PVC nazo zihlukile.Izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula zendlela ye-ethylene ngokuyinhloko ziwuwoyela ongahluziwe, futhi izinto ezingavuthiwe zendlela ye-calcium carbide ngokuyinhloko ziwusawoti oluhlaza namalahle;izindawo ezimaphakathi zochungechunge lwemboni ye-PVC zingamabhizinisi okulungiselela i-PVC;izinkambu eziyinhloko zohlelo lokusebenza ezansi nomfula Amaphrofayili, amapayipi, amafilimu, imikhiqizo yephepha, izinto zekhebula kanye nesikhumba sokwenziwa, njll.
Ngokombono wemephu yemboni ye-PVC, izinkampani zokukhiqiza i-petrochemical ezikhuphukayo ze-PVC zifaka i-PetroChina ne-Sinopec;izinkampani ezimele zezimayini zamalahle zihlanganisa Yanzhou Coal (32.440, -0.86, -2.58%) kanye Shaanxi Coal (15.730, 0.03, 0.19%) ), Liaoning Energy (4.880, 0.44, 9.91%) kanye Pingding Coal ( -11.210, -11.210, -11. 3.69%);Izinkampani zokukhiqiza ezimaphakathi ze-PVC zifaka i-Xinjiang Tianye, i-Zhongtai Chemical, i-Junzheng Group, i-Beiyuan Group, njll.;Izinkampani zeDemand ezingezansi zifaka izimboni zokukhiqiza zamapayipi nezifashisayo ezifana neGuofeng Plastic (7.390, 0.23, 3.21%), Tianan New Materials (8.830, 0.42, 4.99%) kanye neBeijing New Group.
Inqubo yokuthuthukiswa kwemboni: Imboni isesigabeni sokuthuthukisa amakhono
Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yezwe lami ye-PVC kungahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezine.Kusukela ku-1953 kuya ku-1957, i-PVC yayisesiteji socwaningo lokuhlola, futhi ubuchwepheshe bokulungiselela babungaphansi kokuthuthukiswa;kusukela ngo-1958 kuya ku-1980, ubuchwepheshe bezwe lami bokulungiselela i-PVC bukhula kancane kancane futhi imboni yaqala ukuthuthuka;kusukela ngo-1980 kuya ku-2000, ubuchwepheshe bezwe lami bokulungiselela i-PVC bungafinyelela ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi.Sheshisa intuthuko;kusukela ngo-2000, i-PVC yezwe lami isesigabeni sokuthuthukisa umthamo, nomthamo wamathani ayizigidi eziyi-10.
Isizinda senqubomgomo yemboni: izinqubomgomo zikhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kohlaza kwemboni
Eminyakeni yakamuva, njengoba ukuqwashisa ngokuvikelwa kwemvelo kuye kwagxila ezinhliziyweni zabantu, njengemboni engcolisa kakhulu, uhulumeni uye waqhubeka wethula izinqubomgomo zokulawula intuthuko yayo.Izinqubomgomo eziqondile ezethulwe zihlanganisa ukukhawulela izithasiselo kanye nezinto ezikhuthazayo enqubweni yokukhiqiza ye-PVC, ukumisa inqubo yokukhiqiza, kanye nokwenza ukuhlolwa okukhethekile emabhizinisini angcolisa kakhulu ukukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni eluhlaza kanye nekhabhoni ephansi.
Isimo sokuthuthukiswa komkhakha:
——Izici zokuthuthukisa imboni ye-PVC: umphumela oqinile wokuhlanganisa imboni
Njengamanje, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yezwe lami ye-PVC kubonakala ngokuhlushwa okuphezulu kwesifunda kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukugxila okuphansi kwamabhizinisi, indlela ye-calcium carbide njengenqubo eyinhloko, kanye nemiphumela eqinile yokuhlanganiswa kwezimboni.
——Okukhipha imboni ye-PVC: Okukhipha i-PVC kuyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka
Mayelana nomkhiqizo, isikali sokukhishwa kweresin ye-polyvinyl chloride (PVC) yaseChina siye sagcina ukukhuphuka okuzinzile ukusuka ku-2015 kuya ku-2020. Ngokolwazi oluvela e-China Chlor-Alkali Network, ukukhiqizwa kwePVC yaseChina ngo-2020 kuzoba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-22.81, okuwukunyuka ngo-13.4 % unyaka nonyaka
——Ukusetshenziswa okusobala kwemboni ye-PVC: ukusetshenziswa okusobala kungaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingama-20
Kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2020, ukusetshenziswa kwe-PVC yaseChina okubonakalayo kubonise inkambiso yokukhula iyonke.Ngo-2020, ukusetshenziswa okusobala kwePVC yaseChina kuzoba amathani ayizigidi ezingama-20.64, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-5.2%.
——Ukuhlaziywa kwezinga lentengo le-PVC: izinga lentengo liyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka
Kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2020, amanani entengo ePVC yaseChina ayakhuphuka ngemva kokwehla.Ngokwedatha eqashwe i-ejensi yebhizinisi, intengo emaphakathi yasekhaya ye-PVC ekuqaleni kuka-2020 ingu-6,900 yuan/ton, kanti intengo yasekhaya evamile ye-PVC ekupheleni konyaka ingu-7,320 yuan/ton.Ngokusekelwe kulesi sibalo, ngo-2020, isilinganiso sentengo yeyunithi yonyaka ye-PVC e-China sizoba ngu-7110 yuan/ton, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngonyaka ngo-6.4%.
(Qaphela: Inani elimaphakathi lonyaka libalwa ngokusekelwe enanini elimaphakathi lansuku zonke)
(Qaphela: Inani elimaphakathi lonyaka libalwa ngokusekelwe enanini elimaphakathi lansuku zonke)
-- Ukuhlaziywa kosayizi wemakethe yemboni ye-PVC: izinga lokukhula kwemboni lizodlula ama-20% ngo-2020
Ngokwesilinganiso semakethe saseChina se-PVC = ukusetshenziswa kwe-PVC * inani lentengo (intengo emaphakathi yonyaka), isikali semakethe ye-PVC yaseChina sizoqhubeka nokukhula sisuka ku-2015 siye ku-2020. Ngo-2020, isilinganiso samanani eyunithi yonyaka we-PVC e-China singama-yuan angu-7110/ton. .Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, usayizi wemakethe olinganiselwe ungama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-164.5, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-21.7%.
Imboni yezwe yokuncintisana
1. Iphethini yokuncintisana yesifunda: amandla okukhiqiza aphethwe yiNyakatho-ntshonalanga yeChina
Ngokusho kwedatha ekhishwe yi-China Chlor-Alkali Association, ngo-2020, eNyakatho-ntshonalanga izwe lami lizoba namandla okukhiqiza e-PVC aphezulu kakhulu, afinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-13.76;INorth China inamandla okukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi eziyisi-6.7;kanti i-East China inamandla okukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.53.Ngokombono wokusatshalaliswa kwezinkampani ezikhiqiza i-PVC, iSifundazwe sezwe lami i-Xinjiang siyindawo yokuhlangana yezinkampani ezihamba phambili ze-PVC.Izinkampani ezimele abantu zihlanganisa i-Xinjiang Tianye, i-Zhongtai Chemical, njll.;Isifundazwe saseShandong futhi siyisifundazwe esinezinkampani eziningi ze-PVC ezweni lami, futhi inkampani emele i-Xinfa Group., Qingdao Bay, Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical, Sinopec Qilu Branch, Dezhou Shihua, njll. Izinkampani zePVC zezwe lami zitholakala kakhulu eNyakatho neChina naseNyakatho-ntshonalanga yeChina, eduze nendawo yezimayini yempahla eluhlaza, evumela ukonga izindleko.
2. Iphethini yokuncintisana yebhizinisi: amandla okukhiqiza amabhizinisi aholayo angaphezu kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1
Ngokusho kwamandla okukhiqiza, iphethini yokuncintisana yezinkampani zezwe lami ze-PVC ihlukaniswe.Isigaba sokuqala yizinkampani ezinamandla okukhiqiza amathani angaphezu kwesigidi esi-1.Izinkampani ezimele abantu zihlanganisa abaholi bakazwelonke bamandla okukhiqiza abafana noZhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye kanye neBeiyuan Chemical;isigaba sesibili amandla okukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingama-50 -1 ezinkampani, izinkampani ezimele iTianjin Dagu, iSanyou Chemical, iJunzheng Energy nezinye izinkampani ezihamba phambili zesifunda;i-echelon yesithathu yizinkampani ezinamandla okukhiqiza amathani angaphansi kuka-500,000, izinkampani ezimele zihlanganisa i-Elion Chemical ne-Anhui Asustek, njll. Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo akhiqiza i-PVC.
Amathemba okuthuthukiswa kwemboni kanye nesibikezelo sesitayela
1. I-PVC eguquliwe isiphenduke inkambiso yentuthuko: I-PVC eguquliwe ingase ibe imikhiqizo evamile esikhathini esizayo
Ngoba i-PVC resin inokucutshungulwa okungalungile kokubunjwa, njenge-viscosity ephezulu yokuncibilika.I-fluidity ephansi, ukuzinza okuphansi kokushisa, ukubola kalula, njll. Imikhiqizo ye-PVC ayinakukwazi ukuguga, kulula ukuba yi-brittle, iqinile, iqhekeke, ilukhuni, ukumelana nokubanda okubi, njll, ngakho-ke i-PVC eguquliwe ngokuvamile iyadingeka.Ukuze ulungise lezi phutha ezingenhla.Imikhiqizo ye-PVC eguquliwe isetshenziswa kabanzi futhi ingase ibe imikhiqizo evamile yokuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo.Izinhlobo zayo kanye nokusetshenziswa zimi kanje:
2. Ukunwetshwa kokutshalwa kwezimali ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo semakethe: ukwanda kokutshalwa kwezimali sekuphenduke inkambiso yokuthuthukisa imboni
Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-Baichuan Yingfu, izwe lami kulindeleke ukuthi lengeze amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.3 zomthamo wokukhiqiza we-PVC ngo-2021. Phakathi kwazo, i-Tianjin Dagu inamathani angu-80 omthamo wokushintsha, futhi i-Shandong Xinfa kanye ne-Julong Chemical bobabili bahlela ukwengeza amathani angu-400,000 womthamo omusha. .Njengoba uhla lwezicelo lwe-PVC luba banzi, kulindeleke ukuthi abakhiqizi be-PVC batshale imali ekwandiseni ukuze bahlangabezane nesidingo semakethe.
Imininingwane engenhla iphuma “Embikweni Wokuhlaziywa Kwemboni Ye-PVC yase-China kanye Nesidingo Sokuthengisa kanye Nokuhlaziywa Kwesibikezelo Sotshalomali” owenziwe yi-Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.Ngaso leso sikhathi, i-Qianzhan Industry Research Institute iphinde ihlinzeke ngedatha enkulu yezimboni, ucwaningo lwezimboni, ukubonisana kochungechunge lwezimboni, amamephu ezimboni, ukuhlelwa kwezimboni, ukuhlela amapaki, kanye nokukhuthazwa kokutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni.Izixazululo ezinjengokuheha utshalomali, ucwaningo lwe-IPO lokuqongelela imali, kanye nokubhala kwe-prospectus.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-09-2021