Kwicala lokubonelela, ngokutsho kweZhuo Chuang Ulwazi, ukususela ngoMeyi, phantse isiqingatha somthamo wokuvelisa sele sigqityiwe kulo nyaka.Nangona kunjalo, ngokujonga kwisikhundla sogcino esipapashiweyo ngoku, inani leenkampani ezibhengeze isicwangciso solondolozo ngoJuni lincinci.Umthamo wokuhlolwa ngokubanzi ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuba ube ngaphantsi kwalowo ngoMeyi.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuba kusekho amandla okuvelisa ngakumbi kwiindawo eziphambili zemveliso ezifana ne-Inner Mongolia kunye ne-Xinjiang ezingakhange zigqitywe, kuyimfuneko ukuqhubeka nokunikela ingqalelo kuphuhliso lokugcinwa kwezixhobo.Ngokubhekiselele kufakelo lwaphesheya kolwandle, kufakelo lwase-US oluye lwagqithiswa emva kwengqele ebandayo ngoMatshi, imarike ngokubanzi ilindele ukuba iya kulungiswa kwaye iqhube kwimithwalo ephezulu ekupheleni kukaJuni.Kuyimfuneko ukuqhubeka nokunikela ingqalelo ukuba ngaba kukho izinto ezingalindelekanga.Ngokwemfuno, i-PVC yangoku ezantsi inokuqina okuqinileyo phantsi kwemeko yenzuzo embi.Isiqalo esisezantsi semibhobho sigcinwa ngokusisiseko malunga ne-80%, kwaye ukuqala kweprofayili kuyahluka, kunye ne-2-7 ibe yinto ephambili.Kwaye ngokokuqonda kwethu, ukutshintshwa kwe-PVC nge-PE akufezeki ngexesha elifutshane, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukunyamezela kweemfuno zexesha elifutshane kusanele.Kodwa kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo ukuba imozulu yaseMzantsi China kunye neMpuma yeChina ngoJuni iya kuchaphazela imfuno ye-real estate ephantsi.Icala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuba libe buthathaka kunolo ngoMeyi, kodwa ukuchasana ngokubanzi phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno ayinkulu.
Ngokweendleko, uJuni yinyanga yokugqibela yekota yesibini.Imigaqo-nkqubo yokusetyenziswa kwamandla kweminye imimandla inokuqiniswa ngokufanelekileyo ekupheleni kwekota.Okwangoku, i-Inner Mongolia igcina umgaqo-nkqubo wokuthintelwa kwamandla ngokungaqhelekanga, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo yengingqi yaseNingxia itsale umdla.Kulindeleke ukuba i-calcium carbide igcine ixabiso eliphezulu le-4000-5000 yuan / ton ngoJuni.Inkxaso yokuphela kwexabiso lePVC isekhona.
Ngokumalunga noluhlu lweempahla, uluhlu lwangoku lwePVC lukwimeko yokutshatyalaliswa ngokuqhubekayo, kwaye iinkampani ezisezantsi zinempahla encinci kakhulu.Amashishini afuna nje ukuthenga phantsi kwamaxabiso aphezulu, kwaye uluhlu lwempahla lungaphantsi kakhulu kwinqanaba leminyaka edlulileyo.Uluhlu lweempahla oluphantsi kunye nokuqhubeka nokuhlanjululwa kubonisa ukuba iziseko zePVC zisempilweni.Imakethi ngoku ihlawula ingqalelo ngakumbi kwi-inventri ye-PVC.Ukuba kukho ukuqokelelwa kwe-inventri, kulindeleke ukuba kuchaphazele kakhulu ukucinga kwemarike.Uluhlu olupheleleyo lwe-PVC ngoJuni lunokunyuka, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba lusengaphantsi kwinqanaba leminyaka edlulileyo.
Lilonke, icala lokubonelela kunye nemfuno linokuba buthathaka kunoMeyi, kodwa ukuchasana akukhulu, icala leendleko lisaxhaswa, i-inventory iphantsi kakhulu kwaye i-destocking eqhubekayo ixhasa ixabiso le-PVC.NgoJuni, umdlalo phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kunye neendleko, i-PVC inokuguquguquka ngokubanzi.
Isicwangciso sokusebenza:
Ukuguquguquka okubanzi kulindeleke ngoJuni.Phezulu, nikela ingqalelo kwi-9200-9300 yuan / ton, kwaye ngezantsi ubeke ingqalelo kwinkxaso ye-8500-8600 yuan / ton.Isiseko sangoku sinamandla ngokwentelekiso, kwaye ezinye iinkampani ezisezantsi zinokucinga ngokuthenga inani elincinci lemisebenzi yokubiyela kwiidiphu.
Imingcipheko yokungaqiniseki: impembelelo yokukhuselwa kwendalo yendawo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokusetyenziswa kwamandla kumaxabiso e-calcium carbide;ukubuyiswa kwezixhobo zedisk zangaphandle zibuthathaka kunokulindela imarike;imfuno yezindlu nomhlaba iyancipha ngenxa yemozulu;amaxabiso eoli ekrwada ahla enyuka kabukhali;iingozi ezinkulu, njl.
Uphononongo lwemarike
Ukususela ngoMeyi 28, ikhontrakthi ephambili ye-PVC ivaliwe kwi-8,600 yuan / ton, i-2.93% utshintsho ukusuka ngo-Ephreli 30. Ixabiso eliphezulu laliyi-9345 yuan / ton kunye nexabiso eliphantsi laliyi-8540 yuan / ton.
Umzobo 1: Intsingiselo yeekontraki eziphambili zePVC
Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi, ikhontrakthi ephambili yePVC yaguquguquka yaya phezulu, kwaye iziko elipheleleyo lomxhuzulane laya phezulu.Phakathi kweentsuku ezilishumi, phantsi kweempembelelo zomgaqo-nkqubo kunye noluvo olukhulu, izinto ezininzi zorhwebo ziye zawa njengempendulo.I-PVC yayinemigca emithathu yethunzi emide elandelelanayo, kwaye ikhontrakthi ephambili yayikhe yehla ukusuka kwi-9,200 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-8,400-8500 yuan / toni.Ngethuba lohlengahlengiso oluhlayo lwemarike yexesha elizayo phakathi kunye neentsuku zamva, ngenxa yokubonelela ngokungqongqo kwimarike yendawo, i-inventory iqhubekile ukuhla ukuya kwinqanaba eliphantsi, kwaye uluhlu lohlengahlengiso lwalulinganiselwe.Ngenxa yoko, isiseko sekontrakthi ye-East China-spot-main sinyuke kakhulu kwi-500-600 yuan / ton.
Okwesibini, izinto ezichaphazela ixabiso
1. Phezu komsinga imathiriyeli ekrwada
Ukususela ngo-Meyi 27, ixabiso le-calcium carbide eNyakatho-ntshona yeChina yayiyi-4675 yuan / ton, i-3.89% yokutshintsha ukusuka ngo-Ephreli 30, ixabiso eliphezulu laliyi-4800 yuan / ton, kwaye ixabiso eliphantsi laliyi-4500 yuan / ton;ixabiso le-calcium carbide e-East China laliyi-5,025 yuan / ton, xa kuthelekiswa noTshintsho luka-Aprili lwe-3.08% ngomhla we-30, ixabiso eliphezulu liyi-5300 yuan / ton, ixabiso eliphantsi yi-4875 yuan / ton;ixabiso le-calcium carbide eMzantsi China yi-5175 yuan / ton, utshintsho lwe-4.55% ukususela ngo-Ephreli 30, ixabiso eliphezulu liyi-5400 yuan / ton, kwaye ixabiso eliphantsi yi-4950 yuan / Ton.
NgoMeyi, ixabiso le-calcium carbide lalihleli lizinzile.Ekupheleni kwenyanga, kunye nokunciphisa ukuthengwa kwePVC, ixabiso lehla iintsuku ezimbini ezilandelelanayo.Ixabiso eMpuma China naseMzantsi China yi 4800-4900 yuan / ton.Ukuwa kwamaxabiso e-calcium carbide kwenza buthathaka inkxaso yeendleko ekupheleni kwenyanga.NgoMeyi, i-Inner Mongolia yagcina imeko yokunciphisa amandla ngokungaqhelekanga, kwaye imeko yaseNingxia yayixhalabile.
Ukususela ngoMeyi 27, i-CFR Northeast Asia ixabiso le-ethylene laliyi-US $ 1,026 / ton, utshintsho lwe-7.23% ukusuka ngo-Apreli 30. Ixabiso eliphezulu laliyi-US $ 1,151 / ton kwaye ixabiso eliphantsi laliyi-US $ 1,026 / ton.Ngokumalunga nexabiso le-ethylene, ixabiso le-ethylene laliphantsi kakhulu ngoMeyi.
Ukususela ngoMeyi 28, i-coke yesibini ye-metallurgical kwi-Inner Mongolia yayiyi-2605 yuan / ton, utshintsho lwe-27.07% ukusuka ngo-Ephreli 30. Ixabiso eliphezulu laliyi-2605 yuan / ton kunye nexabiso eliphantsi laliyi-2050 yuan / ton.
Ukusuka kumbono wangoku, amandla okuvelisa abhengezwe ngoJuni ukuze aguqulwe angaphantsi, kwaye imfuno ye-calcium carbide kulindeleke ukuba inyuke.Kwaye uJuni yinyanga yokugqibela yekota yesibini, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo wokulawula ukusetyenziswa kwamandla amabini kwimimandla ethile unokuqiniswa.Kwi-Inner Mongolia, kukho amathuba aphezulu okuba imeko yangoku yezithintelo zamandla ezingaqhelekanga ziya kuqhubeka.Umgaqo-nkqubo wokulawula kabini uya kuchaphazela ukunikezelwa kwe-calcium carbide kwaye uchaphazele ngakumbi iindleko zePVC, into engaqinisekanga ngoJuni.
2. Umsinga uyaqala
Ukususela ngoMeyi 28, ngokweenkcukacha zomoya, izinga lokusebenza jikelele le-PVC ukuya phezulu laliyi-70%, utshintsho lwe-17.5 yeepesenti ukusuka ngo-Apreli 30. Ukususela ngoMeyi 14, izinga lokusebenza kwendlela ye-calcium carbide yayiyi-82.07%, utshintsho. of -0,34 ekhulwini amanqaku ukususela ngoMeyi 10.
NgoMeyi, amashishini okuvelisa aqala ukugcinwa kwentwasahlobo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ilahleko yolondolozo jikelele ngoMeyi iya kudlula ngo-Ephreli.Ukuhla kwicala lokubonelela kwenza unikezelo jikelele lwemarike luqinile.NgoJuni, isicwangciso sokugcinwa kwezixhobo ezinomthamo wemveliso we-1.45 yezigidi zeetoni zabhengezwa.Ngokwezibalo ezivela kuZhuo Chuang Ulwazi, ukususela kulo nyaka, phantse isiqingatha samandla okuvelisa sele sigqityiwe.Imimandla yeXinjiang, Inner Mongolia, kunye neShandong inomthamo omkhulu wemveliso ongagcinwanga.Okwangoku, kwidatha epapashiweyo, kuphela inani elincinci leenkampani ezibhengeze ukugcinwa.Umthamo wolondolozo ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuba ube ngaphantsi kwalowo ngoMeyi.Ukulandelela kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo kakhulu imeko yesondlo.
Ukongeza kwimeko yokugcinwa kwekhaya, imarike ngoku ilindele ukuba ixesha lokubuyisela izixhobo zase-US libe ekupheleni kukaJuni, kwaye inxalenye yempembelelo elindelekileyo yemarike ekuboneleleni phesheya kunye nommandla waseIndiya ubonakaliswe ngoJuni. ikowuti yeePlastiki zeFormosa.
Lilonke, unikezelo ngoJuni lunokuba phezulu kunoMeyi.
3. Ukuqala komsinga
Ukususela ngoMeyi 28, ngokweenkcukacha zomoya, izinga lokusebenza elisezantsi lePVC eMpuma yeChina laliyi-69%, utshintsho lwe-4% ukusuka ngo-Ephreli 30;isantya sokusebenza somzantsi we-South China sasingama-74%, utshintsho lwepesenti ye-0 ukusuka kwi-30 ka-Epreli;umzantsi we-North China Izinga lokusebenza laliyi-63%, utshintsho lweepesenti ze-6 ukusuka kwi-30 ka-Epreli.
Ngokubhekiselele kwi-downstream start-ups, nangona inzuzo yombhobho kunye neyona nxalenye inkulu ihlwempuzekileyo, igcinwe malunga ne-80%;ngokweeprofayili, ukuqala-up ngokuqhelekileyo malunga ne-60-70%.Ingeniso esezantsi imbi kakhulu kulo nyaka.Kwakukho izicwangciso zokuyinyusa kwisigaba sokuqala, kodwa yanikezelwa ngenxa yokwamkelwa kakubi kwe-terminal.Nangona kunjalo, umlambo osezantsi ubonise ukomelela okuqinileyo kulwakhiwo kulo nyaka.
Okwangoku, iinkampani ezisezantsi aziqhelani nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamaxabiso ePVC.Nangona kunjalo, imfuno ephantsi komlambo inamandla ngakumbi.Kwaye ngokokuqonda kwethu, umjikelo wokutshintshwa komlambo osezantsi we-PVC kunye ne-PE ngokubanzi ubude, kwaye imfuno yexesha elifutshane kulindeleke ukuba yamkeleke.NgoJuni, eminye imimandla inokuchaphazela ii-odolo ezisezantsi ngenxa yemozulu, kodwa ukubakho kwe-stall enkulu kuphantsi.
4. Uluhlu lwempahla
Ukususela ngoMeyi 28, ngokwedatha yomoya, i-PVC yentlalo yoluntu yayiyi-461,800 tons, utshintsho lwe-0.08% ukusuka ngo-Ephreli 30;I-inventri enyukayo yayiyi-27,000 yeetoni, utshintsho lwe-0.18% ukusuka kwi-30 ka-Epreli.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-Longzhong kunye neZhuochuang, i-inventory iqhubekile iyancipha kakhulu.Kwakhona kuyaqondwa ukuba ngenxa yokuba ixabiso le-PVC kwi-downstream liye laqhubeka liphezulu kwinqanaba lokuqala, kwaye indawo ibonise ukuqina okunamandla kunexesha elizayo, i-inventory ye-downstream iyonke iphantsi kakhulu, kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo ifuneka nje ukufumana. iimpahla., Abanye abasezantsi bathi ixabiso li-8500-8600 yuan / ton xa ukuzimisela ukuzalisa iimpahla kunamandla, kwaye ixabiso eliphezulu lisekelwe ikakhulu kwimfuno eqinile.
Uluhlu lwangoku luphawu lokuba imarike ixhalabele ngakumbi.Imarike ngokubanzi ikholelwa ukuba ukuncipha okuqhubekayo kwe-inventri kubonisa ukuba imfuno eqinile esezantsi iyamkeleka kwaye ixabiso lisenomlinganiselo othile wenkxaso.Ukuba kukho i-inflection point kwi-inventory, iya kuba nempembelelo enkulu ekulindelweni kweemarike, kwaye ingqalelo eqhubekayo iyadingeka.
5. Uhlalutyo lokusasazeka
I-East China indawo yexabiso-ixesha elizayo lekhontrakthi lisasazeka: ngo-Epreli 30 ukuya kwi-28 kaMeyi, isiseko sokutshintsha uluhlu luyi-80 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-630 yuan / ton, isiseko sokutshintsha uluhlu lweveki edlulileyo yi-0 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-285 yuan / ton.
Ukuchatshazelwa yindlela yokuhla ngokubanzi kwimarike yexesha elizayo phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaMeyi, isiseko sasinamandla, esibonisa ukuba imarike yendawo yonke yayiqinile kwaye ukuhla kwexabiso bekulinganiselwe.
I-09-01 Ukwahlukana kwexabiso leNkontrakthi: Ukususela ngo-Ephreli 30 ukuya kwi-28 kaMeyi, umehluko wexabiso ukusuka kwi-240 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-400 yuan / ton, kunye nokwahlukana kwexabiso ukusuka kwi-280 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-355 yuan / ton kwiveki edlulileyo.
Outlook
Ukuguquguquka okubanzi kulindeleke ngoJuni.Phezulu, nikela ingqalelo kwi-9200-9300 yuan / ton, kwaye ngezantsi ubeke ingqalelo kwinkxaso ye-8500-8600 yuan / ton.Isiseko sangoku sinamandla ngokwentelekiso, kwaye ezinye iinkampani ezisezantsi zinokucinga ngokuthenga inani elincinci lemisebenzi yokubiyela kwiidiphu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-14-2021