Ngoku,I-PVCwomelele ngokwentelekiso kumandla nakwimveliso yeekhemikhali, kwaye uthintelwa yimpembelelo ye-oyile ekrwada kunye nezinye izinto ezininzi zorhwebo.Emva kohlengahlengiso oluncinci kwimbonakalo yemarike, kusekho ukuhamba okuphezulu.Kucetyiswa ukuba abatyali-mali balawule izikhundla zabo kwaye bathenge ikakhulu kwiidiphu.
Emva kweholide kaMeyi, eyona ngqiqo iphambili yorhwebo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso emalike kunye nokunqongophala kobonelelo kubonakala ngakumbi, kwaye iintlobo ezinjengamalahle e-thermal kunye ne-rebar, ezichatshazelwa ngakumbi ngumgaqo-nkqubo wokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni, ziye zanda ngokukhawuleza.Kulo mongo, ixabiso lePVC nalo lilandele indlela yokunyuka.Phakathi kwabo, i-PVC yexesha elizayo ye-2109 ikhontrakthi yenyuka yaya phezulu kwi-9435 rmb / ton, kwaye ixabiso le-East China calcium carbide uhlobo lwe-5 nalo libetha i-high high kwiminyaka eyi-20 edlulileyo, ukunyuka ukuya kwi-9450 rmb / ton.Nangona kunjalo, iintlobo zemathiriyeli ekrwada ezinyukayo zinyuke kakhulu iintsuku ezininzi ezilandelelanayo, nto leyo enefuthe elibi kwingeniso yemveliso ephakathi kunye nesezantsi.
Ngomhla we-12 ngoMeyi, iBhunga likaRhulumente lalifuna impendulo esebenzayo ekunyukeni ngokukhawuleza okugqithisileyo kwamaxabiso eemveliso kunye nemiphumo yayo yokubambisana;ngoMeyi 19, iBhunga likaRhulumente lalifuna amanyathelo abanzi okukhusela ukunikezelwa kwezinto ezininzi kunye nokuthintela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okungenangqiqo ekuphenduleni utshintsho lweemarike.Ukuchatshazelwa kulindelo lwalo mgaqo-nkqubo, urhwebo oluninzi lwehla kurhwebo lwemini nobusuku.Ukuhla okukhulu kwePVC ngaloo mini kwakumalunga ne-3.9%.Nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa nezinto zokwakha ezimnyama kunye nezinye iimveliso zamandla, uluhlu lohlengahlengiso lwePVC lulinganiselwe.Ngaba inokuba namandla kangako kwixesha elizayo?
Imfuno engenaxhala phakathi konyaka
Ngokombono wokubonelela, ukuveliswa kweeplastiki ezahlukeneyo kuye kwanda kakhulu kwiinyanga ezine zokuqala zalo nyaka.Ukuthatha i-PP njengomzekelo, ukuveliswa kwemveliso ye-polypropylene pellets ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Ephreli kwakuyi-9,258,500 yeetoni, ukwanda kwe-15.67% ngonyaka;imveliso eyongezelekayo ye-polyvinyl chloride yaba yi-7.665 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kwe-1.06 yezigidi zeetoni xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo ngo-2020, ukwanda kwe-16.09%.Kwikota yesibini neyesithathu, i-avareji yenyanga yePVC yasekhaya iya kuhlala ikwi-1.9 yezigidi zeetoni.Kwangaxeshanye, ngenxa yempembelelo yokuncitshiswa konikezelo lwaphesheya kolwandle ngexesha loMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, ukuthunyelwa ngokuthe ngqo kwezixhobo ezikrwada zePVC kunyuke malunga neetoni ezingama-360,000 unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezintathu zokuqala zalo nyaka.Ngokubhekiselele kunikezelo lwaphesheya kweelwandle, ulwakhiwo lwamazwe ngamazwe luye lwathabath’ unyawo, yaye kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke luye kufikelela kwindawo ephezulu enyakeni ukususela ngoJulayi ukuya kuAgasti.Ngoko ke, ukusuka kwinqanaba lenyanga-ngenyanga, ukunikezelwa kweediski zangaphandle kwanda ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye umbhali uye waqaphela ukulungiswa okuthile kwixabiso lePVC kwiidiski zangaphandle kwixesha elizayo.
Ukusuka kwicala lemfuno, ukuthunyelwa ngokuthe ngqo kwelizwe lam komgubo wePVC ubukhulu becala yiIndiya neVietnam, kodwa umthamo wokuthumela wePVC ngoMeyi unokuncitshiswa kakhulu ngenxa yemfuno ebuthathaka ebangelwa ngubhubhani waseIndiya.Kutshanje, i-PVC ye-PVC ye-India-China i-gap yexabiso iyancipha ngokukhawuleza ukuya kwi-US $ 130 / toni, kwaye ifestile yokuthumela ngaphandle iphantse yavalwa.Kamva, ukuthunyelwa ngokuthe ngqo komgubo waseTshayina kunokuba buthathaka.Ngokuphathelele ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweemveliso ze-terminal, ngokutsho kombhali, i-US real estate ibonisa iimpawu zobuthathaka, kodwa imeko yezoqoqosho isekhona, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso kusenokugcinwa.Ngokubhekiselele kwimfuno yasekhaya ephantsi, okokuqala, ukuqala kwezantsi ngokubanzi kwawela inyanga nenyanga, kwaye ukuqala kweemveliso ezithambileyo kwawa kancinci;okwesibini, ukuqala komgangatho wePVC wehla kakhulu;okwesithathu, inani lee-odolo zamva nje esandleni liqhubekile ukuhla ukuya malunga neentsuku ezingama-20, kwaye imfuno engqongqo yayinamandla ngokwentelekiso;okwesine, iPhondo laseGuangdong umlinganiselo woMbane sele uqalile kwezinye iindawo, nto leyo enefuthe elithile ekuqaleni kwemizi-mveliso ethile yokuvelisa.
Lilonke, iimfuno zasekhaya nezangaphandle ziye zehla kancinane xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, kodwa ukonyuka okongezelekayo kommandla wokuthengisa izindlu nomhlaba ogqityiweyo ngo-Epreli kwaba yi-17.9% unyaka nonyaka.Imfuno yokugqibela ye-PVC iqinisekisiwe, kwaye imfuno yeglasi ekupheleni komjikelezo we-real estate iphumelele.Ukusuka kulo mbono, nangona imfuno yexesha elifutshane ye-PVC iyancipha, akukho nkxalabo malunga nemfuno ngexesha lonyaka.
Uluhlu lwempahla lwenkampani luphantsi
Okwangoku, nokuba imfuno yePVC iyancipha kancinci ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, ixabiso lePVC lihlala liqinile.Esona sizathu sisesona sizathu sikuluhlu lwempahla olusezantsi lomlambo, phakathi kunye nasezantsi.Ngokukodwa, iintsuku ze-inventri zabavelisi be-PVC abaphezulu bakwizinga eliphantsi kakhulu;ngokwe-inventri ye-midstream, thatha i-East China kunye ne-South China isampula ye-inventory yentlalo njengomzekelo.Ukususela ngo-Meyi 14, uluhlu olupheleleyo lwe-East China kunye ne-South China isampula yokugcina iitoni yayiyi-207,600 yeetoni, ukuhla konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-47.68.%, kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi kwithuba elifanayo kwiminyaka emi-6 edlulileyo;i-inventory yezinto ezisezantsi ekrwada igcinwa malunga neentsuku ezili-10, kwaye uluhlu lwempahla luphantsi ngokungathathi hlangothi.Ezona zizathu ziphambili: Kwelinye icala, ishishini lemveliso esezantsi liyaxhathisa ngakumbi kumaxabiso aphezulu ezinto ezikrwada.Ngexesha elifanayo, amaxabiso aphezulu abangele umsebenzi omkhulu wemali, kwaye iinkampani azikhuthazwa ukuba zigcine isitokhwe;kwelinye icala, inani leentsuku ze-odolo ezisezantsi zinciphile kwaye imfuno yesitokisi yehlile.
Ukusuka kwimbono yokunyuka komsinga, umlambo ophakathi, kunye noluhlu lwempahla esezantsi, uluhlu oluphantsi, njengesiphumo sokusebenzisana phakathi kwamacala okubonelela kunye nemfuno, yimbonakaliso ecacileyo yemfuno yangaphambili ye-boom kwaye ichaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukuziphatha komdlalo wangoku kunye nexesha elizayo lamaqela omabini. .Uluhlu oluphantsi lwabavelisi kunye nabarhwebi baye bakhokelela kwiikowuteshini ezinamandla kakhulu xa zijongene nomlambo.Kwanangexesha lokuhla kwexabiso, ixabiso lithembeke ngakumbi, kwaye akukho panic yokuthengisa okubangelwa yi-inventri ephezulu.Ngoko ke, izinto ezininzi zamva nje ziye zachatshazelwa yimvakalelo engalunganga kunye nokuhla kwe-oscillating jikelele, kodwa xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iindidi, ixabiso le-PVC libonise iqondo elithile lokuqina ngenxa yeziseko zayo ezinamandla ezingathathi hlangothi.
Ixabiso le-calcium carbide liphezulu
Kutshanje, isiXeko sase-Ulan Chabu, i-Inner Mongolia ikhuphe “Ileta engoSetyenziso loMbane woLwabiwo-mali kuShishino oluPhezulu olusebenzisa aMandla ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuJuni ka-2021 ″, ithintela ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kumashishini asebenzisa amandla aphezulu kwindawo ephantsi kwayo.Lo mgaqo-nkqubo unempembelelo enkulu ekuboneleleni kwe-calcium carbide.Ngoko ke, kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso lasekhaya le-calcium carbide liya kuhlala liphezulu, kwaye inkxaso yeendleko ze-PVC zamashishini angaphandle ezenziwe nge-calcium carbide ziya kuba namandla.Ukongezelela, inzuzo yendlela ye-calcium carbide yangaphandle okwangoku imalunga ne-1,000 yuan / ton, inzuzo yokuhlanganiswa kweNorthwest malunga ne-3,000 yuan / ton, kwaye inzuzo ye-East China indlela ye-ethylene iphezulu.Ingeniso enyukayo iphezulu ngoku kwaye umdla wokuqalisa ukusebenza uphezulu kakhulu, ngelixa ingeniso yemveliso esezantsi ihlwempuzekile, kodwa ayinakukwazi ukugcina imisebenzi.Lilonke, ukusasazwa kwenzuzo kwikhonkco leshishini lePVC alilingani, kodwa akukho kungalingani okugqithisileyo.Inzuzo ephantsi kakhulu esezantsi ikhokelela ekwehleni okubonakalayo kokuqalisa, okungonelanga ukuba ibe yinkcaso ephambili echaphazela ukuthambekela kwexabiso.
Outlook
Okwangoku, nangona kukho iimpawu zobuthathaka bomda kwicala lemfuno yePVC, imfuno engqongqo isekhona kwixesha eliphakathi nelide.Ngoluhlu lwekhonkco loshishino lonke kwinqanaba eliphantsi, ixabiso lePVC linamandla.Kumaxabiso exesha elide, kufuneka siyijonge ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu.Ngelixa ubhubhani wehlabathi usaqhubeka, nangona ukucutheka kwemali okubangelwa kukuxhalaba kwexesha elifutshane lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka ngokuthe ngcembe, i-Fed iye “yandisa i-balance sheet yayo” ngokungxamayo ukuphendula lo bhubhani.Umjikelo wangoku wemarike yenkomo yemveliso awukapheli, kwaye kuya kuthatha ixesha ukuba amaxabiso anyuke.Kwiindidi ezineziseko ezingcono, kusekho ithuba lokuseta amatsha aphezulu kwixesha elizayo.Ngokuqinisekileyo, abatyali-mali kufuneka banike ingqwalasela enkulu ekuguquguqukeni kwamaxabiso okubangelwa yimingcipheko yomgaqo-nkqubo wasekhaya.
Sikholelwa ukuba i-PVC yomelele kumandla kunye neemveliso zemichiza, kwaye ithintelwe yimpembelelo ye-oyile ekrwada kunye nezinye izinto zorhwebo.Emva kohlengahlengiso oluncinci kwimbonakalo yemarike, kusekho ukuhamba okuphezulu.Kucetyiswa ukuba abatyali-mali balawule izikhundla zabo kwaye bathenge kwiidiphu.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-28-2021