Kumbali yopereka, malinga ndi Zhuo Chuang Information, kuyambira Meyi, pafupifupi theka la mphamvu zopanga zidasinthidwa chaka chino.Komabe, kutengera kuchuluka kwa zokonza zomwe zasindikizidwa pano, kuchuluka kwamakampani omwe adalengeza mapulani okonzekera mu June ndi ochepa.Voliyumu yonse yoyendera mu June ikuyembekezeka kukhala yocheperako mu Meyi.Komabe, chifukwa chakuti pali mphamvu zambiri zopangira m'madera akuluakulu opanga monga Inner Mongolia ndi Xinjiang zomwe sizinakonzedwenso, m'pofunika kupitiriza kumvetsera chitukuko cha kukonza zipangizo.Pankhani ya kuyika kunja kwa dziko, pakukhazikitsa kwa US komwe kudasinthidwa pambuyo pa kuzizira kwa Marichi, msika nthawi zambiri ukuyembekeza kuti asinthidwa ndikuyendetsa katundu wapamwamba kumapeto kwa Juni.Ndikofunika kupitirizabe kumvetsera ngati pali zinthu zosayembekezereka.Pankhani ya kufunikira, mtsinje wa PVC womwe uli pansi pano uli ndi kulimba kwamphamvu pansi pavuto lopanda phindu.Kuyambira kwapansi kwa mapaipi kumasungidwa pafupifupi 80%, ndipo chiyambi cha mbiri chimasiyanasiyana, ndi 2-7 kukhala yaikulu.Ndipo malinga ndi kumvetsetsa kwathu, kusinthidwa kwa PVC ndi PE sikutheka mu nthawi yochepa, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti kupirira kwakanthawi kochepa kumakhala kokwanira.Koma tiyenera kumvetsera ngati nyengo ku South China ndi East China mu June idzakhudza kutsika kwa malo ogulitsa nyumba.Mbali yopereka ndi yofunikira mu June ikuyembekezeka kukhala yocheperako kuposa ija mu Meyi, koma kutsutsana kwakukulu pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira sikuli kwakukulu.
Pankhani ya ndalama, June ndi mwezi wotsiriza wa kotala yachiwiri.Mfundo zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu m'madera ena zikhoza kuimitsidwa moyenera kumapeto kwa kotala.Pakadali pano, Inner Mongolia ili ndi mfundo zoletsa mphamvu mosakhazikika, ndipo mfundo zachigawo cha Ningxia zakopa chidwi.Zikuyembekezeka kuti calcium carbide ikhalabe ndi mtengo wapamwamba wa 4000-5000 yuan/ton mu June.Thandizo lomaliza la mtengo wa PVC likadalipo.
Pankhani ya kuwerengera, zida za PVC zomwe zilipo pakadali pano zikuwonongeka mosalekeza, ndipo makampani akumunsi ali ndi zowerengera zochepa.Mabizinesi amangofunika kugula pansi pamitengo yokwera, ndipo zowerengera zake ndizotsika kwambiri kuposa zaka zam'mbuyomu.Kuwerengera kocheperako komanso kupitilirabe kuwononga zikuwonetsa kuti zoyambira za PVC ndizabwinobwino.Msika pakadali pano umayang'ana kwambiri zowerengera za PVC.Ngati pali kudzikundikira kwazinthu, zikuyembekezeka kukhudza kwambiri msika wamaganizidwe.Zolemba zonse za PVC mu June zitha kukwera, koma zikuyembekezeredwa kuti zitha kukhala zotsika kuposa zaka zam'mbuyomu.
Pazonse, mbali yopereka ndi yofunikira ikhoza kukhala yofooka kuposa mu Meyi, koma zotsutsana sizili zazikulu, mbali yamtengo wapatali imathandizidwabe, zowerengera ndizotsika kwambiri ndipo kutulutsa kosalekeza kumathandizira mtengo wa PVC.Mu June, masewera pakati pa kufunikira ndi kufunika ndi mtengo, PVC ikhoza kusinthasintha kwambiri.
Njira yogwirira ntchito:
Kusinthasintha kwakukulu kukuyembekezeka mu June.Pamwamba, tcherani khutu ku 9200-9300 yuan / tani, ndipo pansi mverani chithandizo cha 8500-8600 yuan / tani.Maziko apano ndi amphamvu, ndipo makampani ena akumunsi angaganize zogula kachipangizo kakang'ono ka hedging pa ma dips.
Kuopsa kosadziwika: zotsatira za chitetezo cha chilengedwe ndi ndondomeko zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu pamitengo ya calcium carbide;kubwezeretsedwa kwa zida za disk zakunja ndizochepa kuposa zomwe msika ukuyembekezera;kufunikira kwa nyumba kumachepa chifukwa cha nyengo;mitengo yamafuta amafuta imasinthasintha kwambiri;zoopsa zazikulu, etc.
Ndemanga ya msika
Kuyambira pa May 28, mgwirizano waukulu wa PVC unatsekedwa pa 8,600 yuan / tani, kusintha kwa -2.93% kuchokera pa April 30. Mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri unali 9345 yuan / tani ndipo mtengo wotsika kwambiri unali 8540 yuan / tani.
Chithunzi 1: Mchitidwe wamakontrakitala akuluakulu a PVC
Kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa May, mgwirizano waukulu wa PVC unasintha kwambiri, ndipo mphamvu yokoka inasunthira mmwamba.Pakati ndi kumapeto kwa masiku khumi, mothandizidwa ndi ndondomeko ndi malingaliro akuluakulu, zinthu zambiri zidagwa poyankha.PVC inali ndi mithunzi itatu yotsatizana yotsatizana, ndipo mgwirizano waukulu kamodzi unatsika kuchoka pa 9,200 yuan/ton kufika pa 8,400-8500 yuan/tani.Pakusinthika kwapansi kwa msika wam'tsogolo m'masiku apakati ndi mochedwa, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kokwanira kwa msika wamalo, zowerengerazo zidapitilirabe kutsika, ndipo kusintha kosinthika kunali kochepa.Zotsatira zake, gawo la East China-main contract maziko lakwera kwambiri mpaka 500-600 yuan/ton.
Chachiwiri, zinthu zomwe zimakhudza mtengo
1. Kumtunda kwa zopangira
Kuyambira pa May 27, mtengo wa calcium carbide kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa China unali 4675 yuan / tani, kusintha kwa 3.89% kuchokera pa April 30, mtengo wapamwamba unali 4800 yuan / ton, ndipo mtengo wotsika kwambiri unali 4500 yuan / tani;mtengo wa calcium carbide ku East China unali 5,025 yuan / ton, poyerekeza ndi Kusintha kwa April 3.08% pa 30, mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri ndi 5300 yuan / ton, mtengo wotsika kwambiri ndi 4875 yuan / tani;mtengo wa calcium carbide ku South China ndi 5175 yuan/ton, kusintha kwa 4.55% kuchokera pa April 30, mtengo wapamwamba ndi 5400 yuan/ton, ndipo mtengo wotsika kwambiri ndi 4950 yuan/Ton.
Mu Meyi, mtengo wa calcium carbide nthawi zambiri udali wokhazikika.Kumapeto kwa mwezi, ndi kuchepa kwa kugula kwa PVC, mtengo unatsika kwa masiku awiri otsatizana.Mtengo ku East China ndi South China ndi 4800-4900 yuan/ton.Kutsika kwa mitengo ya calcium carbide kunafooketsa chithandizo chakumapeto kwa mweziwo.M'mwezi wa Meyi, Inner Mongolia idasungabe kudulidwa kwamagetsi kosakhazikika, ndipo dziko la Ningxia lidakhudzidwa.
Kuyambira pa May 27, CFR Northeast Asia mtengo wa ethylene unali US $ 1,026 / tani, kusintha kwa -7.23% kuyambira April 30. Mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri unali US $ 1,151 / tani ndipo mtengo wotsika kwambiri unali US $ 1,026 / tani.Ponena za mtengo wa ethylene, mtengo wa ethylene udatsika makamaka mu Meyi.
Kuyambira pa May 28, coke yachiwiri yazitsulo ku Inner Mongolia inali 2605 yuan / tani, kusintha kwa 27.07% kuchokera pa April 30. Mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri unali 2605 yuan / tani ndipo mtengo wotsika kwambiri unali 2050 yuan / tani.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro apano, mphamvu zopangira zomwe zidalengezedwa mu June kuti ziwonjezedwe ndizochepa, ndipo kufunikira kwa calcium carbide kukuyembekezeka kukwera.Ndipo mwezi wa June ndi mwezi wotsiriza wa gawo lachiwiri, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti ndondomeko yoyendetsera mphamvu zamagetsi m'madera ena ikhoza kuimitsidwa.Ku Inner Mongolia, pali kuthekera kwakukulu kuti mkhalidwe wamakono woletsa mphamvu zosakhazikika upitirire.Ndondomeko yolamulira yapawiri idzakhudza kupereka kwa calcium carbide ndikuwonjezeranso mtengo wa PVC, zomwe ziri zosatsimikizika mu June.
2. Kumtunda kumayambira
Kuyambira pa May 28, malinga ndi deta ya mphepo, kuchuluka kwa ntchito ya PVC kumtunda kunali 70%, kusintha kwa -17.5 peresenti kuyambira April 30. Kuyambira pa May 14, njira yogwiritsira ntchito calcium carbide inali 82.07%, kusintha. wa -0.34 peresenti kuyambira pa Meyi 10.
M'mwezi wa Meyi, mabizinesi opanga zinthu adayamba kukonza masika, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti kuwonongeka konseko mu Meyi kupitilira Epulo.Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kumapangitsa kuti msika wonse ukhale wolimba.M'mwezi wa June, dongosolo lokonzekera zida zokhala ndi matani okwana 1.45 miliyoni zidalengezedwa.Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Zhuo Chuang Information, kuyambira chaka chino, pafupifupi theka la mphamvu zopanga zidasinthidwa.Madera a Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, ndi Shandong ali ndi mphamvu zambiri zopanga zosasamalidwa.Pakalipano, kuchokera ku deta yofalitsidwa, makampani ochepa chabe adalengeza kukonza.Voliyumu yokonza mu June ikuyembekezeka kukhala yocheperako mu Meyi.Kutsatira kuyenera kuyang'anitsitsa bwino momwe zinthu ziliri.
Kuphatikiza pa kukonza kwapakhomo, msika pakadali pano ukuyembekezera kuti nthawi yobwezeretsa zida zaku US izikhala kumapeto kwa Juni, ndipo gawo limodzi lazomwe msika ukuyembekezeka kubweretsa kunja kwa dziko komanso dera la India zawonekera mu June. mawu a Formosa Plastics.
Pazonse, kupezeka mu June kungakhale kokulirapo kuposa mu Meyi.
3. Mtsinje chiyambi
Kuyambira pa May 28, malinga ndi deta ya mphepo, kutsika kwa PVC ku East China kunali 69%, kusintha kwa -4% kuyambira April 30;kuchuluka kwa ntchito kumunsi kwa South China kunali 74%, kusintha kwa 0 peresenti kuchokera pa Epulo 30;kumunsi kwa North China Mlingo wogwirira ntchito unali 63%, kusintha kwa -6 peresenti kuchokera pa Epulo 30.
Ponena za kutsika kwapansi, ngakhale kuti phindu la chitoliro ndi gawo lalikulu kwambiri ndilosauka, lasungidwa pafupifupi 80%;potengera mbiri, zoyambira nthawi zambiri zimakhala pafupifupi 60-70%.Phindu lakumunsi ndilochepa kwambiri chaka chino.Panali mapulani oti awonjezere poyambira, koma adasiyidwanso chifukwa chosavomerezeka bwino.Komabe, mtsinje wapansi wasonyeza kulimba mtima kwa zomangamanga chaka chino.
Pakalipano, makampani otsika kwambiri sangagwirizane ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwa mitengo ya PVC.Komabe, zofuna zapansi pamadzi ndizokhazikika.Ndipo molingana ndi kumvetsetsa kwathu, kuzungulira kwa kutsika kwa PVC ndi PE nthawi zambiri kumakhala kotalikirapo, ndipo kufunikira kwakanthawi kochepa kukuyembekezeka kuvomerezedwa.M'mwezi wa June, madera ena amatha kukhudza kutsika kwamtsinje chifukwa cha nyengo, koma kuthekera kokhala ndi malo ambiri kumakhala kochepa.
4. Kufufuza
Kuyambira pa May 28, malinga ndi deta ya mphepo, PVC social inventory inali matani 461,800, kusintha kwa -0.08% kuyambira April 30;kumtunda kunali matani 27,000, kusintha kwa -0.18% kuchokera pa Epulo 30.
Malingana ndi deta ya Longzhong ndi Zhuochuang, kufufuzaku kwapitirizabe kuchepa kwambiri.Zimamvekanso kuti chifukwa mtengo wa PVC kumunsi kwa mtsinje ukupitirizabe kukhala wokwera kwambiri kumayambiriro, ndipo malowa asonyeza kulimba mtima kuposa zam'tsogolo, zonse zotsika mtengo ndizochepa kwambiri, ndipo nthawi zambiri zimangofunika kuti mupeze. katundu., Ena kunsi kwa mtsinje adanena kuti mtengo ndi 8500-8600 yuan / ton pamene kufunitsitsa kubwezeretsa katundu kumakhala kolimba, ndipo mtengo wapamwamba umachokera makamaka pa zofuna zolimba.
Zomwe zilipo panopa ndi chizindikiro chakuti msika ukukhudzidwa kwambiri.Msika nthawi zambiri umakhulupirira kuti kuchepa kwazinthu zomwe zikupitilira kukuwonetsa kuti kufunikira kokhazikika kwapansi panthaka ndikovomerezeka ndipo mtengo ukadali ndi gawo lina la chithandizo.Ngati pali inflection point muzowerengera, izi zimakhudza kwambiri zomwe msika ukuyembekezera, ndipo chisamaliro chopitilira chikufunika.
5. Kufalitsa kusanthula
Kum'mawa kwa China kufalikira kwamitengo yam'tsogolo yam'tsogolo: Epulo 30 mpaka Meyi 28, kusintha koyambira ndi 80 yuan/tani mpaka 630 yuan/tani, kusintha koyambira sabata yapitayi ndi 0 yuan/tani mpaka 285 yuan/tani.
Kukhudzidwa ndi kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kwa msika wam'tsogolo pakati pa kumapeto kwa May, mazikowo anali amphamvu, kusonyeza kuti msika wonse wa malo unalidi wolimba ndipo kuchepa kwa mtengo kunali kochepa.
09-01 Kusiyana kwa Mtengo Wamtengo Wapatali: Kuyambira pa Epulo 30 mpaka Meyi 28th, kusiyana kwamitengo kunachokera ku 240 yuan/tani mpaka 400 yuan/tani, ndipo kusiyana kwamitengo kumayambira 280 yuan/tani mpaka 355 yuan/tani sabata yatha.
Outlook
Kusinthasintha kwakukulu kukuyembekezeka mu June.Pamwamba, tcherani khutu ku 9200-9300 yuan / tani, ndipo pansi mverani chithandizo cha 8500-8600 yuan / tani.Maziko apano ndi amphamvu, ndipo makampani ena akumunsi angaganize zogula kachipangizo kakang'ono ka hedging pa ma dips.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jul-14-2021