[PVC: Waiting for the timing] Fundamentals: The upstream starts high, and the new device (400,000 tons) will be close to full production next month. The load of downstream factories increased, but the industry chain storage pressure was great. PVC profits improvement and comprehensive profit in North China. After the price rebounds, the downstream demand has not followed up. The two associations will continue to be launched in the immediately, and macro transactions or have not yet ended. In terms of strategy: 1) Unilaterally wait and see, empty V2309 can wait for macro weakening, and the price of alkalinity to stabilize and recover. 2) Arbitrage 5-9 Positive sets low.
Core viewpoint: Neutral fundamental: upstream starting high, new device (400,000 tons) will be close to full production next month. The load of downstream factories increased, but the industry chain storage pressure was great. PVC profits improvement and comprehensive profit in North China. After the price rebounds, the downstream demand has not followed up. The two associations will continue to be launched in the immediately, and macro transactions or have not yet ended. In terms of strategy: 1) Unilaterally wait and see, empty V2309 can wait for macro weakening, and the price of alkalinity to stabilize and recover. 2) Arbitrage 5-9 Positive sets low.
Alkaline impact on PVC: The price of neutral preference is declining. Shandong 32%liquid -alkali was reported to 890 yuan/ton, and the ton profit was 656 yuan. Overseas alkalinity prices are stable, and export orders are reduced. Electrolytic aluminum -limited power is added. The demand for alumina for aluminum is not restored to alkaline -roasted alkali. Pay attention to upstream maintenance.
Raw material support: neutral and empty 1) Wuhai Electric Stone reported 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 from last week; 2) Lanban is expected to report to 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.3 from last week.) , VCM CFR Far East rose 36 US $ 764/ton.
Supply: The increase in construction slightly. PVC’s overall operating load rate was 80.09%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points from the previous month; of which the PVC operating load rate of the PVC method was 79.27%, an increase of 1.94 percentage points from the previous month; the PVC operating load rate of ethylene method was 83.08%, a decrease of 2.14 percentage points from the previous month. The stock load increases and the maintenance loss has dropped slightly, and there is no new plan maintenance.
Requirements: Low empty 1) The start of downstream products rose to about 4.5 %. 2) Export: Exports are acceptable, to be delivered about 197,000 tons, pay attention to the export situation in March. Products have weakened overseas. 3) The inventory of the weekly club and the factory library has dropped slightly, but the inventory turning point has not yet arrived.
Profit: neutral electrone method has rebounded. Electric Stone Integrated TOM-317 yuan, Shandong Foreign Purchase Electro-Stone Tons Lite-744 yuan; North China ethylene method has risen to 1,200 yuan/ton. The alkali is weak, the comprehensive profit of Northwest China has dropped to 299 yuan, and the comprehensive profit of North China has risen to -167 yuan/ton; the two-ton price difference rose to 2900 yuan. Langlong and stone losses in the PVC industry chain, the loss of the PVC end has narrowed significantly, the profit of alkali is declined, the comprehensive profit of the comprehensive profit is narrowed in North China, and the northwest has a small profit.
Macro: Neutrality is more 1) Domestic: Yangzhou cancels purchase restrictions and restricted sales, Changzhou plans to cancel the sales restrictions. Pay attention to whether the liberalization of the restrictions continues to expand. Policies such as extending the age of loan and “Lianxin Loan” with men and women as co -repaying people have been launched one after another. The Industry Department of the Development and Reform Commission holds some industrial steady growth symposiums in key provinces. It is expected that there are many policies before and after the two sessions. Expanding domestic demand, confidence, and stable growth are the focus of 23 years of economic work. 2) U.S. -non -farm is better, CPI is slightly super expected, and PMI also performs strong.
Poor amount of downstream orders PVC continues to reduce positions and fluctuates downward
In terms of futures: PVC (6471, 3.00, 0.05%) The main contract 2305 continues to reduce the settlement, the lowest price is 6422 yuan/ton, the highest price is 6500, and the final closing price is 6447 yuan/ton. The position of the position was finally reduced by 8731 to 733136. In terms of the main 2305 contract, the top 20 main multi -headed positions increased by 10881, while the first 20 main short short positions increased by 17282 hands. The net holding position was still in a clean state.
In terms of fundamental terms: supply side, the PVC operating rate rose 1.40 percentage points to 77.54% month -on -month, of which the operating rate of the electrical stone method rose 2.98 percentage points to 77.07%. Rising slightly, at a low level of the same period over the years. In terms of new production capacity, Shandong Xinfa, which is 200,000 tons/year, was officially put into production in January, and 100,000 tons/year Texas Lishi was officially put into production in February. Qinzhou plans to be officially put into production at the end of February. Taiwan Formoscus PVC rose $ 40/ton in March, and the export profit window opened slightly.
Demand, from January to December, the cumulative decline in real estate development investment expanded to -10.0%year-on-year, and the accumulated area of real estate sales has expanded to -24.3%year-on-year. The narrowing, the completion of the month was -6.57%year-on-year, compared with the previous month, the financing environment of the housing enterprise improved, and the policy of maintaining the transaction of the property played a role. On the evening of February 20, the CSRC issued a statement saying that in order to further play the advantages of diversified asset allocation and professional investment operation of private equity funds, and meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate fields, recently, the CSRC launched the pilot work of real estate private equity investment funds, and housing enterprises have further increased. Funding sources to benefit the real estate industry.
As of the week of February 19, the Spring Festival holiday returned, and real estate transactions continued to recover at a low level. The area of commercial housing in 30 major and medium -sized cities rose 10.63%month -on -month. As in previous years, it was in the lower season of the Spring Festival and was still at a low position. PVC’s direct downstream operating rate is also gradually recovering, which is slightly higher than last year.
In the inventory, downstream manufacturers started to start, and social inventory fell slightly. As of the week of February 17, PVC’s social inventory decreased by 0.33%month -on -month to 515,700 tons, an increase of 50.22%year -on -year.
The northwestern region’s factories continued to decline, but they were still in a very high position. As of February 17, the northwest area of the northwest region’s warehouses decreased by 8.31%to 268,000 tons.
In terms of basis: On February 22, the mainstream price of the PVC of the Corporal Method in East China fell to 6350 yuan/ton. Base difference is at a low position.
In general, the supply side, the PVC operating rate rose 1.40 percentage points to 77.54%month -on -month, at a low level of the same period of the year. The export profit window is slightly opened, and the export orders during the Spring Festival after the holiday, but there are not many new orders. The construction of downstream manufacturers is still low, and social inventory has fallen slightly. As of the week of February 17, PVC’s social inventory decreased by 0.33%month -on -month to 515,700 tons, an increase of 50.22%year -on -year.
The northwestern region’s factories continued to decline, but they were still in a very high position. As of February 17, the northwest area of the northwest region’s warehouses decreased by 8.31%to 268,000 tons. Inventory pressure fell.
The financing environment of the housing enterprise is good. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice and decided to establish the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first set of housing loan interest rate policy to stimulate sales, implement the asset -liability list plan improvement of high -quality housing enterprises, frequent real estate policies, and the domestic epidemic management and control are gradual. open. The latest December data of the real estate shows that under the policy of paying diplomatic relations, it has improved a lot from the previous month, but it still grows negative year -on -year.
PVC’s direct downstream operating rate is also gradually recovering, but the order volume is not good. The foundation difference is low, but before the PVC declined continuously, the spot transaction volume was continuously reduced last week.Plastic Exterior Pvc Sheets
For more details, please check the following link.
Poor amount of downstream orders PVC continues to reduce positions and fluctuates downward
In terms of futures: PVC (6471, 3.00, 0.05%) The main contract 2305 continues to reduce the settlement, the lowest price is 6422 yuan/ton, the highest price is 6500, and the final closing price is 6447 yuan/ton. The position of the position was finally reduced by 8731 to 733136. In terms of the main 2305 contract, the top 20 main multi -headed positions increased by 10881, while the first 20 main short short positions increased by 17282 hands. The net holding position was still in a clean state.
In terms of fundamental terms: supply side, the PVC operating rate rose 1.40 percentage points to 77.54% month -on -month, of which the operating rate of the electrical stone method rose 2.98 percentage points to 77.07%. Rising slightly, at a low level of the same period over the years. In terms of new production capacity, Shandong Xinfa, which is 200,000 tons/year, was officially put into production in January, and 100,000 tons/year Texas Lishi was officially put into production in February. Qinzhou plans to be officially put into production at the end of February. Taiwan Formoscus PVC rose $ 40/ton in March, and the export profit window opened slightly.
Demand, from January to December, the cumulative decline in real estate development investment expanded to -10.0%year-on-year, and the accumulated area of real estate sales has expanded to -24.3%year-on-year. The narrowing, the completion of the month was -6.57%year-on-year, compared with the previous month, the financing environment of the housing enterprise improved, and the policy of maintaining the transaction of the property played a role. On the evening of February 20, the CSRC issued a statement saying that in order to further play the advantages of diversified asset allocation and professional investment operation of private equity funds, and meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate fields, recently, the CSRC launched the pilot work of real estate private equity investment funds, and housing enterprises have further increased. Funding sources to benefit the real estate industry.
As of the week of February 19, the Spring Festival holiday returned, and real estate transactions continued to recover at a low level. The area of commercial housing in 30 major and medium -sized cities rose 10.63%month -on -month. As in previous years, it was in the lower season of the Spring Festival and was still at a low position. PVC’s direct downstream operating rate is also gradually recovering, which is slightly higher than last year.
In the inventory, downstream manufacturers started to start, and social inventory fell slightly. As of the week of February 17, PVC’s social inventory decreased by 0.33%month -on -month to 515,700 tons, an increase of 50.22%year -on -year.
The northwestern region’s factories continued to decline, but they were still in a very high position. As of February 17, the northwest area of the northwest region’s warehouses decreased by 8.31%to 268,000 tons.
In terms of basis: On February 22, the mainstream price of the PVC of the Corporal Method in East China fell to 6350 yuan/ton. Base difference is at a low position.
In general, the supply side, the PVC operating rate rose 1.40 percentage points to 77.54%month -on -month, at a low level of the same period of the year. The export profit window is slightly opened, and the export orders during the Spring Festival after the holiday, but there are not many new orders. The construction of downstream manufacturers is still low, and social inventory has fallen slightly. As of the week of February 17, PVC’s social inventory decreased by 0.33%month -on -month to 515,700 tons, an increase of 50.22%year -on -year.
The northwestern region’s factories continued to decline, but they were still in a very high position. As of February 17, the northwest area of the northwest region’s warehouses decreased by 8.31%to 268,000 tons. Inventory pressure fell.
The financing environment of the housing enterprise is good. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice and decided to establish the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first set of housing loan interest rate policy to stimulate sales, implement the asset -liability list plan improvement of high -quality housing enterprises, frequent real estate policies, and the domestic epidemic management and control are gradual. open. The latest December data of the real estate shows that under the policy of paying diplomatic relations, it has improved a lot from the previous month, but it still grows negative year -on -year.
PVC’s direct downstream operating rate is also gradually recovering, but the order volume is not good. The foundation difference is low, but before the PVC declined continuously, the spot transaction volume was continuously reduced last week.Plastic Exterior Pvc Sheets
For more details, please check the following link.
Post time: Feb-24-2023