Since March, the PVC market has fallen down, raw prices have performed, and the gross profit of different process enterprises has a certain difference. Electric stone companies have maintained high losses, and gross profit of ethylene companies has decreased. In addition, due to the decline in alkalinity and the rise of liquid chlorine, Shandong Catalog PVC/Alkaline integrated enterprise has increased losses.
Since March, the PVC market has fallen down. The market demand has gradually improved the logic of the market in the early days. The price fluctuation has risen slightly. In the middle of the middle of the year, it has been affected by the heating of overseas risk aversion.
In terms of raw materials, due to different craftsmanship, the price of different raw materials is fulfilled, and the cost changes are different. From the perspective of gross profit, the loss of losses in the corporate enterprises has not changed much, and the gross profit of ethylene companies has decreased. In addition, with the decline of alkali and liquid chlorine, the loss of PVC/alkali -roasted enterprise in Shandong has increased losses. The specific situation is as follows:
The loss of losses of PVC companies
In March, the loss of losses of the PVC enterprises in the stone method did not change much. Taking PVC enterprises purchased by electrical stones outsiders in Shandong as an example, the industry loss at the beginning of the month was about 857 yuan/ton. As of March 16, the industry loss was around 819 yuan/ton.
On the one hand, the main factors affecting the PVC gross profit of the Corporal Method is that the price of electric stones gradually declined, and the cost of PVC continued to decline. On the one hand, the price of electric stones fell. On the one hand, the price of orchid carbon fell, the cost of electric stones decreased, and the starting work was slightly recovered. On the other hand, the downstream PVC industry loses losses and conflicts with electric stones.
Another factor affecting the PVC gross profit of the stone method is that the price of PVC is oscillating and falling. The reason for the decline in price is that the fundamentals of supply and demand are still under pressure, the supply side is relatively high, and the new production capacity has been released one after another. The downstream orders are generally, and the PVC inventory remains high. On the other hand, some European and American banks are facing a liquidity crisis, causing investors to hedge in risk aversion, and the price of commodities represented by crude oil fell.
The PVC enterprise imported VCM has maintained a little loss
In March, companies that import VCMs have maintained a slight loss. At the beginning of the month, the loss was about 220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the loss was about 260 yuan/ton in the middle of the month.
On the one hand, the main factors that affect the gross profit of imported PVC enterprises on the one hand, the import VCM -arriving price remains high, and the cost pressure is too high. On the other hand, the price of PVC fluctuated.
Foreign -purchased PVC enterprise gross profit decreases
The gross profit of PVC companies purchased by foreign -purchased ethylene has gradually declined. In March, the PVC enterprise purchased by foreign purchases was about 70 yuan/ton in the early month of the month. On the one hand, the primary factor of the decline in the gross profit of ethylene PVC companies is relatively high on the one hand, and on the other hand, the price of PVC prices has fallen.
Increased losses of alkali/electric stone method PVC increased losses
The loss of PVC in Shandong’s alkali/electrical stone method has gradually increased. On the one hand, the PVC losses of the stone method are higher. On the other hand, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, but the continuous decline in the price of alkali and alkali affects integrated profits. At the beginning of the month, the integrated loss of alkali -alkali/electrical PVC in Shandong area was about 13 yuan/ton. In the middle of the Shandong region, the integrated loss of alkaline/batterius method PVC was reduced to about 300 yuan/ton.
In the future, PVC companies’ profitability will continue to differentiate
In the later period, the price of electric stones continued to decline in small space, the cost of PVC of the electric stone method was high, and the fundamentals of PVC supply and demand had improved expectations. The cost of VCM enterprises is expected to decline. On the whole, the profit of PVC in the later period is difficult to improve significantly, and there are still great uncertainty in different process companies.
US housing starts in January reached 1.309 million units, down 4.5% from 1.371 million units in December and 21.4% lower than 1.666 million units in January 2022, according to US Census Bureau data. Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in January reached 1.339 million, slightly above 1.337 million in December, but 27.3% lower than 1.841 million in January 2022.
The US Mortgage Bankers Association also reported in February that while mortgage applications in January decreased 3.5% on the year, they rose 42% from December.
Westlake CFO Steve Bender said that the increase from December indicates consumers were becoming more confident that rate increases were slowing.
Rising PVC demand pressures caustic soda prices
Executives also said the uptick in PVC demand would prompt higher production rates, which were pressuring upstream caustic soda prices as supply increased.
Caustic soda, a key feedstock for alumina and pulp and paper industries, is a byproduct of the production of chlorine, which is the first link in the PVC production chain. Increasing PVC output to meet growing demand will prompt higher upstream chlor-alkali rates.
Chao said average caustic soda prices in 2023 were flat to 2022 levels, although a rebound in domestic demand in China could give caustic soda prices a boost. China relaxed its coronavirus-related restrictions in late 2022, and higher domestic demand for caustic soda, PVC and other products in 2023 would reduce Chinese exports, Westlake executives said.
“Caustic really follows GDP,” Chao said. “If China comes back, and India is still one of the strongest emerging markets, we expect caustic soda to improve.”
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Post time: Apr-01-2023