There are currently no major changes in the fundamentals of PVC, and the overall construction load of the supply side is relatively high. Almost all of the PVC enterprises in the electric stone method are all equipped with alkalinity. The continuous decline in the price of alkalinity will affect the comprehensive cost pressure of chlorine -alkali enterprises. Slightly weakened, and the decrease of chlorine -alkali enterprises is still expected to reduce yield reduction, but considering that the supply of new PVC production capacity increases negative supply is relatively abundant, the absolute inventory value in the short term is still at a high level. In the early stage of the downstream, the appropriate amount of replenishment, the high raw materials and finished products inventory, and the new orders have been improved limited. As the current spot price rises, the downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the overall exchange atmosphere is light during the day. The current market participants are optimistic about the domestic economy expectations, the performance of infrastructure -related products is strong, and it still supports the current market mentality. The spot price of the international market is weak operation. Taiwan Formosa Plastics has recently announced the quotation of PVC ship goods in April 2023. The offer is reduced by $ 60-70/ton, FOB Taiwan Newspaper 820 US dollars/ton, CIF China News $ 865/ton, CIF India Newspaper $ 900/ton. In the short term, the market is still in weak reality and strong expectations. The bankruptcy of the US Silicon Valley Bank has caused risk aversion to the market. The offshore RMB rose 1.5%to $ 1 to 6.83. The market is expected to be affected by this. After the disk is lowered, the probe rises, continuing the vibration sorting, and it is recommended to watch it with caution.
PVC latest market trend
If the demand is verified, PVC has room for price increases
In the supply side, some new devices are still expected to be put into production in March. With the repair of the stock, the stock has risen to a relatively high level, and the output expectations in March are high. From the perspective of real estate high -frequency data, the sales of new houses and second -hand housing are continuously warming up, and the marginal repair of real estate is underway. In February, the macro PMI data was warm, which strengthened the market’s expectations for economic recovery, and the overall demand was better. At present, the upstream inventory and social inventory of PVC are at the same time at the same time, and the inventory pressure is still very large. The demand for PVC demand has higher requirements. If the demand is verified, the PVC has room for price increases. If the reality of demand is not good for the time being, the demand policy is expected to support, and the overall tendency will be more matched.
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It is expected that the price of PVC in the medium and long -term PVC will be shocked with the macroeconomic recovery
PVC production enterprises have started to improve steadily, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continues to rise, and the real estate industry is still in a sluggish market. However , Boost market confidence. The price of the cost side of the electrical and ethylene is stable, but the price of alkaline is reduced, the comprehensive cost of chlorine is compressed, and the price of PVC is supported. In the short term, the PVC inventory base is large, and the inflection point of the inventory has not yet occurred. At present, there is still large inventory pressure, which brings great pressure to the fundamental improvement, and the uplink space is limited. It is expected that medium- and long -term prices will recover with a macroeconomic trend.
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Post time: Mar-15-2023