2. Profit and start -up -take PVC as an example
The figure below selects PVC futures and profit performances from 2016 to the present. Among them, the profits have selected representative Shandong out -of -Shandong out -of -the -art stones and integrated profits. Due to the advantages of coal resources, the cost is lower than that of East China. It is easy to represent marginal profits of the industry. At present, the domestic electrone capacity accounted for about 80 %, ethylene the Founder capacity accounted for 20 %, and the comprehensive production capacity of chlorine is about 70 %. Since the profit of chlorine -alkali integrated enterprises is significantly higher than that of the profits of the company, East China is basically used to use East China to foreign countries. The profit of the PVC enterprise of electric stones is the lowest level in the industry. For example, the PVC company has profits, then the industry is profitable as a whole. If East China integrated PVC enterprises have profit loss, the normal production of enterprises may be affected.
Judging from 2016 to 2023, when the profit of electrical companies outside East China reached about 1,000, it was basically accompanied by the top of the staged market, such as in November 2016, September 2017, and October 2021. When the losen lyon integration is formed, it is basically accompanied by a staged bottom, such as January 2016, January 2022, and November 2022. Judging from the seasonal model of the industry, PVC has two maintenance twice a year in spring and autumn, respectively from April and June and July-September. The top three stages are near the maintenance season. Phased supply and demand imbalances brought rising prices. When corporate profits increased, the industry rose as fast as possible. After the supply increased and the downstream replenishment of the database slowed down, the market staged. When the chlorine -alkali integration losses, the industry has declined in a phase. Although there is no conventional inspection at this stage, it is at a low level at the same time. In other words, the construction of a profit is to take the "V" type. When the loss, the construction is "inverted", and the profit is positively related
Because the PVC industry chain is mostly integrated, other accessories must be comprehensively considered when discussing PVC profits. Among them, the most impact is the upstream products and the alkali of the accompanying products. At present, the production capacity of the Corporal Method is relatively large, so the cost of electric stone and PVC is more correlated. Generally speaking, PVC prices have risen by the price of electric stones. 2021 is a relatively special year. It is affected by both energy consumption. The low supply of electric stones is tight, and the price of electric stones has risen. For self -carried electric PVC companies, the start -up enthusiasm is relatively high. At this stage, the profit is mainly obtained by the electrone factory (the self -reserved electric stone factory can supplement the PVC profit through the profit of the electric stone), so it can be seen that it can be seen that it can be seen that it can be seen Even though the price of PVC continued to break the high price in 2021, the profit of PVC companies' PVC companies is generally losing money. This part of the enterprise has actively reduced production or maintenance. In addition The same period of the same period is low.
The price of alkali alkali also has a greater impact on the construction behavior of PVC companies. Generally, 1 ton PVC is accompanied by 0.7-0.8 tons of alkalinity. The profits between them have affected each other. Falling, the PVC company has already begun to develop losses, but at this time the industry's work has not been affected much. Until July, the price of alkaline pyrine has fallen, causing the profit loss of the integrated company of chlorine and alkali. The PVC market will rebound. By November 2022, the alkali alkali was reduced slightly, and the comprehensive profit of chlorine -alkali was losing money. In March, the price of alkaline roasted declined significantly, and the losses of chlorine -alkali integrated increased significantly. As the maintenance season is about to enter, it can be observed that this year's starting time is earlier than previous years.
In general, for chemical enterprises, the upstream will be adjusted according to real -time profits, and the phased supply and demand will be adjusted by affecting the supply. At the same time, the analysis of profit must be combined with the industrial process. Taking PVC as an example, it must be divided into integration and non -integrated. In addition, it is necessary to combine the profit of the stone and alkali. In addition, the electrical collection enterprise has obtained a certain profit as the industry's upper margin, and the losses of integrated enterprises are into the industry. At the same time, it also needs to be considered in combination with other factors.
Summarize
Profit will affect the behavioral model of the enterprise. As a chemical industry, upstream companies are relatively concentrated. In the short term, the changes in profitability in the short term will affect the construction of the upstream. Profit is transmitted to the price end by affecting the supply. Looking back at the historical market with the regular "valuation+driver" logic, the valuation is usually sufficient conditions, and most of the real impact on the market lies in the driver. The rebound returns to normal (for example, the cost of cold repairs is high, the glass will not be cold when the glass is lost, and the supply side will not be reduced immediately). At the same time, the industry is not profitable. The value of valuation is to combine the fundamentals of the product. For example, under the high valuation of varieties such as PVC, downstream will reduce buying goods, and similar alkali as a downstream glass is just needed. The raw materials cannot stop supply. The time is long). In addition, when judging the valuation, you need to pay attention to the process of the product. For example, for PVC, the production capacity of the outer electrical collection has fewer production capacity. The supply side has caused a large impact, and the profit loss industry of chlorine -alkali integrated enterprises will change. When choosing a strategy, the valuation can be referred to one of the choices. It is more needed to see the driver's strength. Taking PVC as an example, the current valuation of most enterprises has not been high under the loss of losses. Demand, there is an expected to reduce production in April and the increase in demand. From the perspective of profit and loss than the perspective of profit and loss, a small amount can be matched at the current price. Focus on the situation of the later destinations. limited.
Post time: Mar-30-2023