PVC qhov tseeb kev lag luam qauv (2)

Kev ua lag luam PVC tseem nyob hauv qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm tus nqi txhawb nqa thiab kev thov, thiab qhov kev thov tom qab hnub so tsis zoo li qhov xav tau, thaum tus nqi ntawm alkaline roasted tau poob, tus nqi ntawm cov thee rov ua dua, thiab tag nrho cov nqi txhawb nqa tseem yog. nyob ntawd.Qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam tseem tuaj yeem tos ntsoov rau ntau txoj cai.Kev muag vaj tsev tam sim no txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab nws yuav maj mam txhim kho cov xwm txheej ntawm vaj tsev lag luam.Nws tseem siv sijhawm qee lub sijhawm kom xa mus rau PVC davhlau ya nyob twg.Qhov xwm txheej PVC tam sim no nyuaj hloov.Qhov tseem ceeb

1. Kev lag luam rov pib dua

Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, PVC (6334, -39.00, -0.61%) pom thawj zaug poob thiab tom qab ntawd sawv.Ua ntej Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, PVC tseem nce ntxiv raws li kev txhawb nqa ntawm txoj cai vaj tse thiab kev xav tau zoo.Tom qab qhov kev ua koob tsheej, qhov qis qis rov tsim tawm thiab rov tsim tawm qeeb.Qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev txiav txim qis qis yog deviated.Tom qab ntawd, tus nqi ntawm alkali poob, cov nyhuv seesaw tshwm sim, ntxiv rau PVC destocking, thiab kev ua lag luam kev kwv yees rau ob ntu tau zoo dua.PVC sawv tom qab hauv qab ntawm PVC.Tus nqi ntawm alkali poob los ntawm 1030 yuan / tuj rau 870 yuan / ton, ib tug txo ntawm 15.5%.

Qhov thib ob, qhov pib ntawm kev tsim kho yog txhim kho, thiab qee qhov kev tso tawm muaj peev xwm tshiab

Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2023, PVC cov khoom tso tawm yog 1.781 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 1.3%, nce ntxiv ntawm 1.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab Nissan lub nplhaib nce ntawm 2.3% lub hli-rau-hli.Guangxi Huayi 400,000 tons ntawm ethylene txoj kev yog loj - tsim nyob rau lub Ob Hlis lig.Nyob rau lub Ob Hlis, ua tsaug rau qhov poob ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov pob zeb hluav taws xob thiab cov nqi PVC nce hauv ib nrab ntawm lub hli, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm PVC ntawm cov txheej txheem outsourcing tau kho.Maj mam khaws.Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, PVC nruab nrab 79.32% txhua hli, nce ntawm 1.5 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm Lub Ib Hlis.Hais txog kev tsim khoom thiab kev tsim khoom, 400,000 tons ntawm ethylene ntaus ntawv hauv Julong Chemical tseem tsis tau tsim khoom loj.Shandong Xinfa 400,000 tons ntawm cov cuab yeej tau qhib 200,000 tons, thiab lwm 200,000-ton ntaus ntawv tsis tau qhib.Kuaj lub tsheb.

Thib peb, cov npoo ntawm vaj tsev zoo dua, thiab qhov kev cia siab tseem nyob ntawd

Nyob rau hauv 2022, PVC noj yog 20.24 lab tons, ib xyoo -on-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 2.7%.Thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, cov ntaub ntawv siab-frequency ntawm vaj tse ua tau tsis zoo, tab sis tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv siab-frequency ntawm cov chaw muag khoom ntawm cov tsev lag luam hauv 30 lub nroog loj thiab nruab nrab thiab thaj tsam kev lag luam ntawm qhov thib ob - tes vaj tse, kev muag khoom ntawm cov tsev tshiab thiab cov vaj tsev thib ob txuas ntxiv kom sov.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Tshawb Fawb Shell, thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2023, txoj siv sia thib ob tau saib ntawm qhov ntsuas ntawm 30.9, nce ntawm 17.2 lub hlis -on -hli, qhov ntsuas tsev tshiab yog 24.6, nce ntawm 11.0 los ntawm lub hli dhau los, thiab cov vaj tse tau kho los ntawm marginal.Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, PMI ntawm kev tsim khoom lag luam yog 52.6, thiab nce siab ntawm 2.5 ntsiab lus los ntawm lub hli dhau los.Qhov tsis yog-tsim PMI yog 56.3, thiab qhov uplink ntawm 1.9 cov ntsiab lus tau tshaj, tag nrho cov uas tau dhau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam.Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, kev tsim kho kev lag luam PMI yog 60.2, uas yog siab dua tus nqi dhau los ntawm 56.4.Cov ntaub ntawv sov so macro PMI tau ntxiv dag zog rau kev lag luam kev cia siab rau kev lag luam rov qab.

4. Kev thov txawv teb chaws tsis muaj zog, tab sis nws yog qhov nyuaj

Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, kev xa tawm ntawm PVC hmoov yog 126,000 tons, nce ntawm 48.8% lub hli-rau-hli thiab txo qis ntawm 34.6% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Xyoo 2022, kev xa tawm ntawm PVC hmoov yog 1.966 lab tons, nce ntawm 12.1% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, kev xa tawm ntawm PVC pem teb xa tawm yog 371,000 tons, nce ntawm 8.2% lub hli-rau-hli thiab txo qis ntawm 31.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Hauv xyoo 2022, kev xa tawm ntawm PVC pem teb xa tawm yog 50.71 lab tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ​​ntawm 11.5%, ntawm 2.52 lab tons tau xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Meskas, suav txog 50%.PVC xa tawm rov ntim rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.Kev ua lag luam xav tias yuav tsum tau ua thaum Lub Ob Hlis Ntuj hauv Lub Ob Hlis, yog li Is Nrias teb 's PVC ntshuam tau siv rau lub Ob Hlis, yog li Is Nrias teb cov khoom siv PVC tau nce hauv lub sijhawm luv luv hauv kuv lub tebchaws.

Txij li thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2022, nrog kev txhawb nqa cov paj laum los ntawm kev lag luam sab nrauv, PVC hmoov tawm tau poob qis los ntawm lub hli dhau los txij li lub Tsib Hlis, thiab cov khoom xa tawm hauv pem teb tau poob qis los ntawm lub hli dhau los txij lub Xya Hli.Xyoo 2023, PVC hmoov xa tawm thiab xa tawm hauv pem teb yuav tsum poob qis.Ua ntej tshaj plaws, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm cov paj laum nce, qhov poob ntawm kev thov txawv teb chaws yog qhov tseeb.Thib ob, North America yog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws PVC net export cheeb tsam.Los ntawm 2021 mus rau thawj lub Xya hli ntuj xyoo no, nws raug cuam tshuam los ntawm huab cua txias thiab congestion ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj.Kev xa tawm tau poob qis, tab sis cov teeb meem no tau txo qis.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov khoom muag yog siab heev.Nws tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov kev cia siab ntawm US export ntim hauv 2023 yuav muaj neeg coob coob hauv kuv lub teb chaws PVC xa tawm.

Los ntawm nruab nrab thiab ntev, kev thov txawv teb chaws tsis muaj zog, tab sis los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev xa tawm thiab kev kos npe tshiab tshiab, muaj sijhawm kom muaj qhov ntim, thiab cov khoom xa tawm muaj qee yam tawv.

Tsib, kev ua lag luam outlook

Hauv kev muab khoom, qee cov khoom siv tshiab tseem xav tias yuav muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv lub Peb Hlis.Nrog rau kev kho cov khoom lag luam, cov khoom lag luam tau nce mus rau qib siab, thiab cov khoom lag luam xav tau nyob rau lub Peb Hlis yog siab.Los ntawm kev xav ntawm cov ntaub ntawv vaj tsev siab-ntau zaus, kev muag khoom ntawm lub tsev tshiab thiab cov vaj tsev thib ob tau ua kom sov tsis tu ncua, thiab kev kho vaj tsev marginal tseem tab tom ua.Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, cov ntaub ntawv macro PMI tau sov, uas txhawb kev lag luam kev cia siab rau kev lag luam rov qab, thiab tag nrho cov kev xav tau zoo dua.Tam sim no, cov khoom lag luam nce toj thiab cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo ntawm PVC yog tib lub sijhawm tib lub sijhawm, thiab cov khoom muag siab tseem loj heev.Qhov kev thov rau PVC thov muaj ntau dua cov kev xav tau.Yog tias qhov kev thov raug txheeb xyuas, PVC muaj chav rau tus nqi nce.Yog tias qhov kev xav tau tiag tiag tsis zoo rau lub sijhawm tam sim no, txoj cai xav tau yuav tsum txhawb nqa, thiab tag nrho cov kev xav yuav zoo sib xws.Yas Sab nrauv Pvc Sheets