Thawj lub npe: Foreseeing 2021: "Panorama Daim Ntawv Qhia ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam PVC hauv 2021" (nrog rau kev lag luam, kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes thiab kev loj hlob, thiab lwm yam) Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute
Cov tuam txhab teev npe loj hauv kev lag luam: Xinjiang Tianye (12.060, 0.50, 4.33%) (600075);Zhongtai tshuaj (17.240, 0.13, 0.76%) (002092);Beiyuan Group (10.380, 0.25, 2.47%) (601568);Junzheng Group (6.390, 0.15, 2.40%) (601216);Sanyou Chemical (15.450, -0.13, -0.83%) (600409).
Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm kab lus no: kev lag luam muaj peev xwm;kev lag luam tso zis;kev lag luam xav tau
Kev Lag Luam Txheej Txheem
1. Kev txhais
Polyvinyl chloride, abbreviated li PVC (Polyvinyl chloride) hauv lus Askiv, yog ib lub polymer tsim los ntawm polymerization ntawm vinyl chloride monomer nyob rau hauv peroxides, azo tebchaw thiab lwm yam pib;los yog nyob rau hauv qhov kev txiav txim ntawm lub teeb thiab cua sov raws li cov dawb radical polymerization cov tshuaj tiv thaiv mechanism.Tam sim no, cov kev faib tawm dav dav ntawm kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam PVC suav nrog kev faib tawm raws li daim ntawv thov, kev faib tawm raws li txoj kev polymerization thiab kev faib tawm raws li cov ntsiab lus plasticizer.Cov qeb tshwj xeeb yog raws li nram no:
2. Kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov saw hlau: Cov saw hlau muaj qhov ntev thiab muaj ntau yam kev lag luam
Raws li cov txheej txheem tsim khoom sib txawv, cov khoom siv raw hauv cov dej ntws ntawm PVC kev lag luam saw kuj txawv.Cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov ethylene feem ntau yog cov roj av, thiab cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov txheej txheem calcium carbide yog cov ntsev thiab cov thee;nruab nrab ncav cuag ntawm PVC kev lag luam saw yog PVC npaj qhauj;daim ntawv thov kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv qab no yog Profiles, kav dej, zaj duab xis, cov khoom siv ntawv, cov ntaub ntawv cable thiab tawv tawv, thiab lwm yam.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm PVC daim ntawv qhia kev lag luam, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam petrochemical ntawm PVC suav nrog PetroChina thiab Sinopec;Cov tuam txhab sawv cev thee mining suav nrog Yanzhou Coal (32.440, -0.86, -2.58%) thiab Shaanxi Coal (15.730, 0.03, 0.19%)), Liaoning Zog (4.880, 0.44, 9.91%) thiab Pingding Coal (11.2410, -0. 3.69%);PVC midstream ntau lawm tuam txhab uas muag suav nrog Xinjiang Tianye, Zhongtai Chemical, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, thiab lwm yam .;Cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv qab no suav nrog cov yeeb nkab thiab kev tsim khoom lag luam xws li Guofeng Plastic (7.390, 0.23, 3.21%), Tianan Cov Khoom Tshiab (8.830, 0.42, 4.99%) thiab Beijing New Group.
Kev lag luam txoj kev loj hlob: Kev lag luam yog nyob rau theem ntawm kev txhim kho lub peev xwm
Kev txhim kho ntawm kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam PVC tuaj yeem muab faib ua plaub theem.Los ntawm 1953 txog 1957, PVC tau nyob rau hauv kev tshawb fawb theem, thiab cov txheej txheem kev npaj yog nyob rau hauv kev txhim kho;los ntawm 1958 txog 1980, kuv lub teb chaws PVC npaj tshuab maj mam loj hlob thiab kev lag luam pib tsim;los ntawm 1980 txog 2000, kuv lub teb chaws PVC npaj tshuab tuaj yeem ncav cuag ntau lawm.Ua kom muaj kev loj hlob sai;txij li xyoo 2000, kuv lub teb chaws PVC yog nyob rau theem ntawm kev txhim kho lub peev xwm, muaj peev xwm ntawm 10 lab tons.
Kev lag luam txoj cai keeb kwm yav dhau: cov cai txhawb kev loj hlob ntsuab ntawm kev lag luam
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, raws li kev paub txog kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig tau pib hauv lub siab ntawm tib neeg, raws li kev lag luam muaj kuab lom heev, tsoomfwv tau tshaj tawm cov cai tsis tu ncua los tswj nws txoj kev loj hlob.Cov kev cai tshwj xeeb tau qhia suav nrog txwv tsis pub ntxiv cov khoom ntxiv thiab cov catalysts hauv PVC cov txheej txheem tsim khoom, kev tsim cov txheej txheem tsim khoom, thiab ua cov kev tshuaj xyuas tshwj xeeb ntawm cov tuam txhab muaj kuab paug siab los txhawb kev txhim kho ntsuab thiab cov pa roj carbon tsawg ntawm kev lag luam.
Kev lag luam kev loj hlob raws li txoj cai:
—— Kev txhim kho yam ntxwv ntawm kev lag luam PVC: muaj zog kev lag luam kev koom ua ke cuam tshuam
Tam sim no, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kuv lub teb chaws PVC kev lag luam yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm lub regional siab concentration ntawm ntau lawm muaj peev xwm, tsis tshua muaj concentration ntawm qhauj, calcium carbide txoj kev raws li cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb, thiab muaj zog muaj kev koom ua ke cuam tshuam.
—— PVC kev lag luam tso zis: PVC cov zis txuas ntxiv nce
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov zis, Tuam Tshoj tus polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin tso zis scale tau tuav ib tug ruaj khov upward trend los ntawm 2015 txog 2020. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Chlor-Alkali Network, Tuam Tshoj tus PVC ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2020 yuav yog 22.81 lab tons, nce 13.4. % xyoo-rau-xyoo
—— Qhov pom meej noj ntawm PVC kev lag luam: qhov pom tseeb yog siab dua 20 lab tons
Los ntawm 2016 txog 2020, Tuam Tshoj qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev siv PVC tau qhia txog kev loj hlob tag nrho.Xyoo 2020, Tuam Tshoj qhov pom tseeb PVC noj yuav yog 20.64 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 5.2%.
—— Kev soj ntsuam ntawm qib PVC tus nqi: tus nqi nce ntxiv
Txij xyoo 2012 txog 2020, Tuam Tshoj tus nqi PVC tau nce siab tom qab poob.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv soj ntsuam los ntawm lub koom haum ua lag luam, lub mainstream domestic PVC nruab nrab nqi nyob rau hauv thaum pib ntawm 2020 yog 6,900 yuan / ton, thiab lub domestic mainstream nruab nrab nqi ntawm PVC thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo yog 7,320 yuan / tuj.Raws li qhov kev suav no, xyoo 2020, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo chav tsev nqi ntawm PVC hauv Suav teb yuav yog 7110 yuan / ton, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 6.4%.
(Faj seeb: Tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo yog xam raws li tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hnub)
(Faj seeb: Tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo yog xam raws li tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hnub)
—— Kev soj ntsuam ntawm kev lag luam loj ntawm PVC kev lag luam: kev lag luam loj hlob yuav ntau dua 20% hauv 2020
Raws li Tuam Tshoj tus PVC lag luam nplai = PVC noj * chav tsev nqi (tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo), qhov ntsuas ntawm Tuam Tshoj PVC kev lag luam yuav loj hlob los ntawm 2015 txog 2020. Nyob rau hauv 2020, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo chav tsev nqi ntawm PVC hauv Suav teb yog 7110 yuan / ton. .Raws li qhov no, kev kwv yees kev lag luam loj yog 164.5 billion yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 21.7%.
Kev lag luam kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes
1. Cov qauv kev sib tw hauv cheeb tsam: muaj peev xwm tsim tau los ntawm Northwest Tuam Tshoj
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Chlor-Alkali Association, xyoo 2020, Northwest kuv lub teb chaws yuav muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj PVC, ncav cuag 13.76 lab tons;North Tuam Tshoj muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 6.7 lab tons;thiab East Tuam Tshoj muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm 2.53 lab tons.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev faib cov tuam txhab tsim khoom PVC, kuv lub teb chaws Xinjiang yog ib qho chaw sib sau ua ke rau cov tuam txhab PVC ua.Cov tuam txhab sawv cev suav nrog Xinjiang Tianye, Zhongtai Tshuaj, thiab lwm yam .;Shandong xeev kuj yog ib lub xeev nrog ntau lub tuam txhab PVC hauv kuv lub teb chaws, thiab lub tuam txhab sawv cev yog Xinfa Group., Qingdao Bay, Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Tshuaj, Sinopec Qilu ceg, Dezhou Shihua, thiab lwm yam. kuv lub teb chaws cov tuam txhab PVC feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv North Tuam Tshoj thiab Northwest Tuam Tshoj, nyob ze rau cov raw khoom mining cheeb tsam, uas yog conducive rau cov nqi txuag.
2. Kev sib tw ua lag luam qauv: lub peev xwm ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam yog ntau tshaj 1 lab tons
Raws li lub peev xwm ntau lawm, kev sib tw qauv ntawm kuv lub teb chaws cov tuam txhab PVC tau muab faib.Thawj theem yog cov tuam txhab uas muag muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj 1 lab tons.Cov tuam txhab sawv cev suav nrog cov thawj coj muaj peev xwm hauv tebchaws xws li Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye thiab Beiyuan Chemical;qib thib ob yog lub peev xwm tsim tau ntawm 50 -1 lab tons ntawm cov tuam txhab, cov tuam txhab sawv cev yog Tianjin Dagu, Sanyou Chemical, Junzheng Zog thiab lwm lub tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv cheeb tsam;qhov thib peb echelon yog cov tuam txhab uas muaj peev xwm tsim tau tsawg dua 500,000 tons, cov tuam txhab sawv cev suav nrog Elion Chemical thiab Anhui Asustek, thiab lwm yam. Txawv txawv me me thiab nruab nrab PVC ntau lawm cov lag luam.
Kev lag luam kev loj hlob prospects thiab trend forecast
1. Hloov PVC tau dhau los ua ib qho kev txhim kho: Hloov PVC yuav dhau los ua cov khoom tseem ceeb yav tom ntej
Vim tias PVC resin muaj cov txheej txheem molding tsis zoo, xws li cov viscosity siab.Tsis zoo fluidity, tsis tshua muaj thermal stability, yooj yim ua rau decomposition, thiab lwm yam. PVC cov khoom muaj kev laus tsis zoo, yooj yim los ua nkig, tawv, tawg, tsis zoo toughness, tsis txias tsis kam, thiab lwm yam, yog li feem ntau hloov PVC yuav tsum tau.Yuav kom ua rau cov shortcomings saum toj no.Hloov kho PVC cov khoom siv dav siv thiab tuaj yeem dhau los ua cov khoom tseem ceeb rau kev txhim kho yav tom ntej.Nws hom thiab kev siv yog raws li nram no:
2. Kev lag luam nthuav dav kom tau raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam: kev lag luam nthuav dav tau dhau los ua kev lag luam kev lag luam
Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Baichuan Yingfu, kuv lub teb chaws xav tias yuav ntxiv 2.3 lab tons ntawm PVC cov peev txheej hauv xyoo 2021. Ntawm lawv, Tianjin Dagu muaj 80 tons ntawm kev hloov peev xwm, thiab Shandong Xinfa thiab Julong Chemical ob txoj kev npaj yuav ntxiv 400,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab. .Raws li daim ntawv thov ntau ntawm PVC ua dav, nws xav tias PVC manufacturers yuav nqis peev pab rau kev nthuav dav kom tau raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam.
Cov ntaub ntawv saum toj no yog los ntawm "Tuam Tshoj PVC Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam thiab Kev Muag Khoom thiab Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam" los ntawm Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Qianzhan Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam tseem muab cov ntaub ntawv loj loj, kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam, kev sib tham txog kev lag luam, kev lag luam maps, kev npaj ua lag luam, kev npaj chaw ua si, thiab kev lag luam nce qib.Cov kev daws teeb meem xws li kev nqis peev kev lag luam, IPO nrhiav nyiaj txiag txoj kev kawm, thiab kev sau ntawv prospectus.
Post lub sij hawm: Sep-09-2021