A bangaren samar da kayayyaki, a cewar Zhuo Chuang Information, ya zuwa watan Mayu, kusan rabin karfin samar da kayayyaki an yi garambawul a bana.Koyaya, yin la'akari da ƙarfin kulawa da aka buga a halin yanzu, adadin kamfanonin da suka sanar da shirin kulawa a watan Yuni kaɗan ne.Ana sa ran adadin binciken gabaɗaya a watan Yuni bai kai na watan Mayu ba.Duk da haka, saboda har yanzu ana samun karin karfin samar da kayayyaki a manyan wuraren da ake nomawa kamar Mongoliya ta ciki da kuma Xinjiang da ba a yi wa kwaskwarima ba, ya zama dole a ci gaba da mai da hankali kan bunkasa kayan aikin.Dangane da abubuwan da aka gina a ketare, na na'urori na Amurka da aka yi wa kwaskwarima bayan ruwan sanyi a watan Maris, kasuwa gabaɗaya na tsammanin za a sake gyara su kuma a yi aiki da manyan kaya a ƙarshen watan Yuni.Wajibi ne a ci gaba da kula da ko akwai abubuwan da ba a zata ba.Dangane da buƙatu, PVC na yanzu yana da ƙaƙƙarfan ƙarfi a ƙarƙashin yanayin rashin riba mara kyau.Farawar bututu na ƙasa ana kiyaye shi a kusan 80%, kuma farkon bayanin martaba ya bambanta, tare da 2-7 ya zama babba.Kuma bisa ga fahimtarmu, maye gurbin PVC ta hanyar PE ba zai yiwu ba a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, kuma ana sa ran cewa ɗan gajeren lokaci na buƙata ya isa.Amma muna bukatar mu mai da hankali kan ko yanayin da ake ciki a kudancin kasar Sin da kuma gabashin kasar Sin a watan Yuni zai yi tasiri a kan bukatar mallakar gidaje.Ana sa ran bangaren wadata da bukatu a watan Yuni zai yi rauni fiye da na watan Mayu, amma gaba daya sabani tsakanin wadata da bukatu bai yi yawa ba.
Dangane da farashi, Yuni shine watan ƙarshe na kwata na biyu.Manufofin amfani da makamashi a wasu yankuna na iya ƙarfafa su yadda ya kamata a ƙarshen kwata.A halin yanzu, Mongoliya ta ciki tana kula da manufar hana wutar lantarki da ba ta dace ba, kuma manufofin yankin Ningxia sun ja hankali.Ana sa ran cewa calcium carbide zai kula da babban farashin yuan 4000-5000 a watan Yuni.Tallafin ƙarshen farashi na PVC har yanzu yana nan.
Dangane da kaya, kayan aikin PVC na yanzu yana cikin yanayin ci gaba da lalacewa, kuma kamfanonin da ke ƙasa suna da ƙima kaɗan.Kamfanoni kawai suna buƙatar siye a ƙarƙashin farashi mai girma, kuma ƙididdiga ta ƙasa da matakin shekarun baya.Ƙananan ƙididdiga da ci gaba da ɓarna sun nuna cewa mahimman abubuwan PVC suna da lafiya.Kasuwa a halin yanzu yana ba da hankali sosai ga kayan aikin PVC.Idan akwai tarin tarin kaya, ana tsammanin zai yi tasiri sosai kan tunanin kasuwa.Ƙididdiga na PVC a watan Yuni na iya tashi, amma ana sa ran cewa har yanzu yana iya zama ƙasa da matakin shekarun baya.
Gabaɗaya, ɓangaren samarwa da buƙatun na iya zama mai rauni fiye da na Mayu, amma sabani ba shi da girma, ana tallafawa ɓangaren farashi har yanzu, ƙima yana da ƙasa sosai kuma ci gaba da destocking yana goyan bayan farashin PVC.A watan Yuni, wasan tsakanin wadata da buƙatu da farashi, PVC na iya canzawa sosai.
Dabarun aiki:
Ana sa ran samun babban canji a watan Yuni.A saman, kula da 9200-9300 yuan / ton, kuma a kasa kula da tallafin 8500-8600 yuan / ton.Tushen yanzu yana da ƙarfi sosai, kuma wasu kamfanoni na ƙasa na iya yin la'akari da siyan ƙaramin adadin ayyukan shinge akan dips.
Hadarin rashin tabbas: tasirin kariyar muhalli na gida da manufofin amfani da makamashi akan farashin carbide na calcium;dawo da na'urorin faifai na waje yana da rauni fiye da tsammanin kasuwa;Bukatar dukiya ta raunana saboda yanayi;Farashin danyen man fetur na tabarbarewa sosai;hadarin macro, da dai sauransu.
Bita na kasuwa
Tun daga ranar 28 ga Mayu, babban kwangilar PVC ya rufe a yuan 8,600 / ton, canjin -2.93% daga Afrilu 30. Farashin mafi girma shine yuan / ton 9345 kuma mafi ƙarancin farashi shine yuan / ton 8540.
Hoto 1: Yanayin manyan kwangilolin PVC
A farkon watan Mayu, babban kwantiragin PVC ya tashi sama, kuma gaba ɗaya cibiyar nauyi ta motsa sama.A tsakiyar da ƙarshen kwanaki goma, ƙarƙashin rinjayar manufofi da ra'ayin macro, yawancin kayayyaki sun faɗi a cikin martani.PVC yana da layukan inuwa masu tsayi guda uku a jere, kuma babban kwantiragin sau ɗaya ya ragu daga yuan / ton 9,200 zuwa kewayon yuan 8,400-8500.A lokacin daidaitawar kasuwar nan gaba a tsakiyar rana da kuma ƙarshen rana, saboda ƙarancin wadatar da kasuwar tabo, kayan aikin ya ci gaba da faɗuwa zuwa ƙaramin matakin, kuma kewayon daidaitawa ya iyakance.Sakamakon haka, tsarin kwantiragin gabacin China ya karu sosai zuwa yuan 500-600/ton.
Na biyu, abubuwan da ke tasiri farashin
1. Haɓaka albarkatun ƙasa
Ya zuwa ranar 27 ga Mayu, farashin calcium carbide a arewa maso yammacin kasar Sin ya kai yuan/ton 4675, canjin kashi 3.89% daga ranar 30 ga Afrilu, farashin mafi girma ya kai yuan 4800, kuma mafi karancin farashi shi ne yuan/ton 4500;Farashin calcium carbide a gabashin kasar Sin ya kasance yuan 5,025, idan aka kwatanta da Afrilu Canjin 3.08% akan 30th, farashin mafi girma shine yuan 5300, mafi ƙanƙanci shine yuan / ton 4875;Farashin calcium carbide a kudancin kasar Sin ya kai yuan 5175, canjin kashi 4.55% daga ranar 30 ga watan Afrilu, farashin mafi girma shi ne yuan/ton 5400, kuma mafi karancin farashi shi ne yuan/Ton 4950.
A watan Mayu, farashin calcium carbide gabaɗaya ya tabbata.A karshen wata, tare da raguwar sayayyar PVC, farashin ya ragu na kwanaki biyu a jere.Farashin a Gabashin China da Kudancin China shine yuan 4800-4900.Faduwar farashin carbide na calcium ya raunana tallafin-ƙarshen farashi a ƙarshen wata.A cikin watan Mayu, Mongoliya ta cikin gida ta kiyaye yanayin yanke wutar lantarki ba bisa ka'ida ba, kuma jihar Ningxia ta damu.
Tun daga ranar 27 ga Mayu, farashin ethylene na CFR na Arewa maso Gabashin Asiya ya kasance dalar Amurka 1,026/ton, canjin -7.23% daga Afrilu 30. Farashin mafi girma shine dalar Amurka 1,151/ton kuma mafi ƙarancin farashi shine dalar Amurka 1,026/ton.Game da farashin ethylene, farashin ethylene ya ragu sosai a watan Mayu.
Ya zuwa ranar 28 ga Mayu, Coke na karfe na biyu a Mongoliya ta ciki ya kasance yuan/ton 2605, canjin da ya karu da kashi 27.07 daga ranar 30 ga Afrilu. Farashin mafi girma shi ne yuan/ton 2605 kuma mafi karancin farashi shi ne yuan/ton 2050.
Daga ra'ayi na yanzu, ƙarfin samarwa da aka sanar a watan Yuni don sake fasalin ya ragu, kuma ana sa ran buƙatar calcium carbide ya karu.Kuma watan Yuni shi ne watan karshe na rubu'i na biyu, kuma ana sa ran za a tsaurara manufofin sarrafa makamashin biyu a wasu yankuna.A cikin Mongoliya ta ciki, akwai yuwuwar cewa halin da ake ciki na takunkumin wutar lantarki na yau da kullun zai ci gaba.Manufar kula da dual zai shafi samar da sinadarin calcium carbide kuma zai kara shafar farashin PVC, wanda ba shi da tabbas a watan Yuni.
2. Upstream yana farawa
Tun daga ranar 28 ga Mayu, bisa ga bayanan iska, jimlar yawan aiki na PVC sama da kashi 70%, canjin -17.5 maki daga Afrilu 30. Tun daga ranar 14 ga Mayu, ƙimar aiki na hanyar calcium carbide ya kasance 82.07%, canjin canji. na -0.34 kashi dari daga Mayu 10.
A watan Mayu, kamfanonin samar da kayayyaki sun fara kula da bazara, kuma ana sa ran cewa asarar kulawa gabaɗaya a watan Mayu zai wuce Afrilu.Rushewar da ake samu a bangaren samar da kayayyaki yana sa wadatar kasuwar gaba daya ta takura.A watan Yuni, an sanar da shirin kula da kayan aiki tare da jimlar samar da ton miliyan 1.45.Bisa kididdigar da Zhuo Chuang Information ta fitar, tun daga wannan shekarar, kusan rabin karfin da ake samarwa ya yi garambawul.Yankunan Xinjiang, Mongoliya ta ciki, da Shandong suna da babban ƙarfin samarwa da ba a kula da su ba.A halin yanzu, daga bayanan da aka buga, ƙananan kamfanoni ne kawai suka sanar da kulawa.Adadin kulawa a watan Yuni ana sa ran zai kasance ƙasa da wancan a watan Mayu.Bibiya yana buƙatar kulawa sosai ga yanayin kulawa.
Baya ga yanayin kula da cikin gida, kasuwa a halin yanzu gabaɗaya tana tsammanin lokacin dawo da kayan aikin Amurka zai kasance a ƙarshen watan Yuni, kuma wani ɓangare na tasirin da ake tsammanin kasuwar zai yi kan wadatar ketare da yankin Indiya ya bayyana a cikin watan Yuni. Abubuwan da aka bayar na Formosa Plastics.
Gabaɗaya, wadatar a watan Yuni na iya zama sama da na watan Mayu.
3. Farawa ta ƙasa
Ya zuwa ranar 28 ga Mayu, bisa ga bayanan iska, yawan aikin PVC a gabashin kasar Sin ya kai kashi 69%, canjin -4% daga 30 ga Afrilu;Yawan aiki na kudancin kasar Sin ya kai kashi 74%, canjin kashi 0 cikin dari daga ranar 30 ga Afrilu;Matsakaicin Arewacin China Adadin aiki ya kasance 63%, canjin -6 kashi dari daga 30 ga Afrilu.
Dangane da fara farawa a ƙasa, duk da cewa ribar bututu da mafi girman rabo ba ta da kyau, an kiyaye shi da kusan 80%;dangane da bayanan martaba, farawa gabaɗaya kusan 60-70%.Ribar da ke ƙasa tana da ɗan ƙanƙanta a wannan shekara.An yi shirin kara shi tun a farkon matakin, amma kuma an daina shi saboda rashin karbuwar tasha.Duk da haka, na ƙasa ya nuna ƙarfin juriya ga gine-gine a wannan shekara.
A halin yanzu, kamfanonin da ke ƙasa ba su iya daidaitawa da manyan sauye-sauye na farashin PVC.Koyaya, buƙatun ƙasa yana da ƙarfi.Kuma bisa ga fahimtarmu, sake zagayowar maye gurbin PVC da PE gabaɗaya ya fi tsayi, kuma ana tsammanin buƙatun na ɗan gajeren lokaci za a karɓa.A watan Yuni, wasu yankuna na iya shafar umarni na ƙasa saboda yanayi, amma yuwuwar babban rumfa ba ta da yawa.
4. Inventory
Tun daga ranar 28 ga Mayu, bisa ga bayanan iska, kayan aikin zamantakewa na PVC ya kasance tan 461,800, canjin -0.08% daga Afrilu 30;Abubuwan da ke sama sun kasance tan 27,000, canjin -0.18% daga 30 ga Afrilu.
Bisa bayanan Longzhong da Zhuochuang, an ci gaba da raguwa sosai a cikin kididdigar kayayyaki.Hakanan an fahimci cewa saboda farashin PVC a cikin ƙasa ya ci gaba da girma a farkon matakin, kuma tabo ya nuna ƙarfin juriya fiye da na gaba, gabaɗayan kayan da ke ƙasa yana da ƙasa sosai, kuma gabaɗaya kawai ana buƙata don samun. kayan., Wasu daga ƙasa sun ce farashin shine 8500-8600 yuan / ton lokacin da niyyar sake cika kaya yana da ƙarfi, kuma babban farashin ya dogara ne akan ƙarancin buƙata.
Ƙididdiga na yanzu alama ce da kasuwa ta fi damuwa.Kasuwar gabaɗaya ta yi imanin cewa ci gaba da raguwar ƙima yana nuna cewa ƙaƙƙarfan buƙatu na ƙasa abin karɓa ne kuma farashin har yanzu yana da ƙayyadaddun tallafi.Idan akwai juzu'in juzu'i a cikin kaya, zai sami babban tasiri akan tsammanin kasuwa, kuma ana buƙatar ci gaba da kulawa.
5. Yada bincike
Gabashin China tabo farashin-manyan kwangilolin nan gaba yaduwa: Afrilu 30 zuwa 28 ga Mayu, tushen canjin kewayon shine yuan 80 / ton zuwa yuan 630 / ton, canjin canjin tushen na makon da ya gabata shine 0 yuan / ton zuwa yuan 285.
Dangane da yanayin koma baya a kasuwar gaba a tsakiyar tsakiyar watan Mayu, tushen ya kasance mai ƙarfi, wanda ke nuna cewa gabaɗayan kasuwar tabo ta kasance mai tsauri kuma an iyakance farashin.
09-01 Bambancin Farashin Kwangila: Daga 30 ga Afrilu zuwa 28 ga Mayu, bambancin farashin ya tashi daga yuan / ton 240 zuwa yuan / ton 400, kuma bambancin farashin ya tashi daga yuan / ton 280 zuwa yuan 355 a cikin makon da ya gabata.
Outlook
Ana sa ran samun babban canji a watan Yuni.A saman, kula da 9200-9300 yuan / ton, kuma a kasa kula da tallafin 8500-8600 yuan / ton.Tushen yanzu yana da ƙarfi sosai, kuma wasu kamfanoni na ƙasa na iya yin la'akari da siyan ƙaramin adadin ayyukan shinge akan dips.
Lokacin aikawa: Yuli-14-2021